535
FXUS63 KGRB 172346
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
546 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTH WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CENTRAL WISCONSIN WEST OF THE FOX
VALLEY.
- THE FOX VALLEY COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN NOT IN THE ADVISORY
AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WILL BE MAINLY DRY.
- ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES (30-60%)
THURSDAY, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN PRETTY SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY: MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AND MADE A SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE BAND OF
FGEN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, THE HI-RES
MODELS ARE NOW SAMPLING THIS SYSTEM AND ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHWARD SHIFT. HREF PROBABILITIES OF
EXCEEDING 1 INCH OF SNOW IS NOW AROUND 50% ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY
FROM APPLETON SOUTH TO OSHKOSH WITH 70-80% WEST OF THIS AREA. THE
FOLLOWING PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WEST OF APPLETON AND OSHKOSH AND SOUTH OF MARSHFIELD
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING:
- 50-70% OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
- 30-50% OF EXCEEDING 3 INCHES
- 10-30% OF EXCEEDING 4 INCHES
GIVEN THESE PROBABILITIES THE MOST LIKELY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES, WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE (75TH PERCENTILE) AND THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO OF 5 INCHES (90TH PERCENTILE). THE TIMING OF THIS SNOW,
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE ON TUESDAY, ADDS A LAYER OF COMPLEXITY
AS THE IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER EVEN IF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COME
IN ON THE LOWER END. GIVEN THE IMPACTS OF THE FIRST ACCUMULATING
SNOW OF THE SEASON DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WAUSHARA, WOOD, PORTAGE, AND WAUPACA COUNTIES
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE COMPACT NATURE OF
FRONTOGENESIS MEANS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN A TIGHT GRADIENT
WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WOOD, PORTAGE, AND WAUPACA COUNTIES
LIKELY RECEIVING MORE SNOW THAN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THOSE
COUNTIES.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL RANGE FROM COMPLETELY DRY
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN, TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS
EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE FOX VALLY AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN NORTH OF THE MAIN FGEN BAND.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN BAND ARE EXPECTED TO MAINLY
BE BELOW AN INCH GIVEN ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN PLACE AND THE LACK OF
FORCING.
REST OF THE FORECAST: DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. NEXT CHANCE (40-70%)
FOR PRECIP ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM RACES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. WHILE THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BE
NORTH OF THE AREA, SOME WAA, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, ALONG WITH A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TO PRODUCE SOME
PRECIP. AMOUNTS ARE LOOKING ON THE LIGHT SIDE, WITH PROBABILITIES
OF 0.25"+ UNDER 25%. LOOKING LIKE MAINLY RAIN, BUT A LITTLE SNOW
COULD MIX IN OVER THE NORTH. ENSEMBLES HAVE REALLY BACKED OFF ON
BRINGING A MORE MOISTURE RICH, WRAPPED-UP SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, SO UNFORTUNATELY PROSPECTS FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAIN NOW
LOOKS LOW.
TEMPERATURES & WINDS: TEMPS WILL REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S (SLIGHTLY
WARMER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN). A BRIEF SHOT WAA WILL GIVE A SMALL
BUMP IN TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WE COULD GET A 50 IN THE SOUTH, BUT PROBABILITIES
OF REACHING 50 REMAIN UNDER 20% DUE TO CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER TODAY AND FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK, WITH GUSTS
ONLY REACHING UP TO 15 MPH.
AVIATION
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
BALANCE OF THE NIGHT WILL FEATURE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS. LATE TONIGHT THOUGH, CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
FROM CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WI, WHILE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR
OVER THE NORTH. MVFR CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW (IFR-MVFR VSBY) WILL
THEN STEADILY WORK ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29 ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THE TERMINAL WITH GREATEST CHANCE TO SEE IFR
VSBY WILL BE ATW FOR A FEW HOURS ON TUESDAY MORNING AS NORTHERN
EDGE OF SNOW BAND MOVES ACROSS. CWA, GRB AND MTW WILL ONLY BE ON
EDGE OF STEADIER SNOW, WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT AUW AND
RHI. SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN BY
MIDDAY, BEFORE ENDING. ALL AREAS WILL BE BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS
AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
WIZ035>037-045.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......JLA
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