327
FXUS63 KGRB 180950
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
350 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WOOD, PORTAGE,
WAUPACA AND WAUSHARA COUNTIES UNTIL NOON.
- LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW EXPECTED FROM THE FOX VALLEY TO
MANITOWOC COUNTY.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES.
A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PRECIPITATION WAS JUST MOVING INTO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AT ISSUANCE TIME. THE
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED THAT THE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE BAND
HAD JUST ABOUT ENDED TO OUR WEST, SUGGESTING THAT IT WILL SET UP A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. MOST OF THE
MESO-MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THIS, AND DON'T EXPAND THE
PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH THAN OUR SOUTHERN TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES. THOUGH MMOST OBSERVATIONS TO OUR SOUTH HAVE SHOWN RAIN
EARLY THIS MORNING, COLDER SURFACE WET BULB TEMPERATURES IN
CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI SHOULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY QUICK
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL ACCORDINGLY,
WHICH FOCUSES MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION OVER SOUTHERN WOOD,
SOUTHWEST PORTAGE AND WAUSHARA COUNTIES (ROUGHLY THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE ADVISORY AREA). CONSIDERED WHETHER OR NOT THE ADVISORY NEEDED
TO BE EXPANDED EAST INTO WINNEBAGO COUNTY, BUT DECIDED AGAINST
IT. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES/WET BULBS WERE WARMER NEAR LAKE
WINNEBAGO EARLY THIS MORNING, AND EAST WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL
LIKELY KEEP THEM MILDER, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATION TO AN
INCH OR LESS. AS SUCH, THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW OVER C/EC WI UNTIL MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.
REST OF THE FORECAST: ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A COUPLE QUICK-
MOVING AND MOISTURE DEFICIENT SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW, AND MAINLY FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN WI.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
VFR WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE THIS EVENING, BUT LATE TONIGHT
CLOUDS WILL LOWER FROM CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WI, WHILE SKIES
STAY MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE NORTH. MVFR CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW (IFR-
MVFR VSBY) WILL THEN STEADILY WORK ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 29 ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE TERMINAL WITH GREATEST CHANCE
TO SEE IFR VSBY WILL BE ATW FOR A FEW HOURS ON TUESDAY MORNING AS
NORTHERN EDGE OF SNOW BAND MOVES ACROSS. CWA, GRB AND MTW WILL
ONLY BE ON EDGE OF STEADIER SNOW, WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT
AUW AND RHI. SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO LIGHT
RAIN BY MIDDAY, BEFORE ENDING. ALL AREAS WILL BE BACK TO VFR
BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ035>037-045.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......JLA
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