528
FXUS63 KGRB 092027
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
227 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
EXITING BY AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. RATES MAY REACH OR EXCEED 1
INCH PER HOUR ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. BITTER
COLD WIND CHILLS LIKELY WILL BE AS LOW AS 10 BELOW TO 30 BELOW
ZERO AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON FRIDAY (30-50%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY: SNOW TONIGHT, GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OF INTEREST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SNOW HAS BEEN
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA WITHIN STRONG MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE 990 MB SURFACE LOW. THIS SNOW WILL QUICKLY
ADVANCE SOUTH AND EAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW PASSING
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
OVERALL, HIGH RES GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT SOUTH, MORE IN LINE
WITH GLOBAL (GEFS/ECMWF) ENSEMBLES, WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FORECAST IN A NARROW STRIPE ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN JUST NORTH OF THE STRONG SURFACE LOW. AS A RESULT,
TRIMMED SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND REPLACED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING WITH AND ADVISORY FOR A FEW COUNTIES.
NORTHERN AREAS MAY NEED TO EVEN TREND LOWER WITH AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING. ON THE SOUTHERN END, WAUSHARA COUNTY WAS ADDED TO THE
WARNING WITH GENERALLY MEDIUM (40 TO 60%) CHANCES FOR 6" FROM
CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THESE SYSTEMS ARE DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE DETAILS FOR, WITH
HIGHER RATES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER MESOSCALE FORCING
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING AMOUNTS. TRENDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOX
VALLEY AND LAKESHORE AREAS WILL NEED TO WATCHED THIS EVENING AS
SOME GUIDANCE EXTENDS AN AXIS OF LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN THE 6-7 INCH
RANGE TOWARDS PARTS OF THE FOX VALLEY. SNOW RATES COULD EXCEED 1
INCH PER HOUR FOR A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW CENTERED ON THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN, RESULTING IN
DIFFICULT TRAVEL. SNOW SHOULD BE QUICKLY WANING BY SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS EAST.
WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
LOW PULLS EAST WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE. THIS
LIKELY WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO CAUSE TRUE BLOWING SNOW, BUT SOME
DRIFTING MAY OCCUR.
THURSDAY-TUESDAY: COLDER, LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES
HEADING THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A FEW EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE
FLOW WILL BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW. RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST
SNOW CHANCES ARE CENTERED ON FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH WITH PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE 30 TO 60%
RANGE. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURS/THURS NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO IT'S AN ACTIVE PATTERN.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WILL BE THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. EFI VALUES FOR HIGH/LOW TEMPS DROP BELOW -0.8, INDICATING
STRONG ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT FOR ANOMALOUS COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
MAY STRUGGLE TO TOP THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS PASSING WEST OF THE
AREA. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD TRENDS, WHICH MAY IMPACT TEMPS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROGRESSIVE RIDGING SPREADING EASTWARD WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND, BUT THE SPREAD INCREASES CONSIDERABLY BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
A SWATH OF SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 09.21Z
THIS AFTERNOON AND TOWARDS THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 10.03Z.
THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON
WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITY MAY BE LOCALLY REDUCED UNDER 1/2 SM AT
TIMES, PARTICULARLY FROM CENTRAL THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY FOR A TIME TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-010-011-019>021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ013-022-038>040-048>050-073-074.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ018-030-031-035>037-045.
DISCUSSION.....JM
AVIATION.......JM
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