273
FXUS63 KGRB 110929
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
329 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW LIKELY FRIDAY. THOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
UNDER AN INCH, THE SNOW MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY SLICK TRAVEL.
- BITTER COLD THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL WI ON SATURDAY. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 20 TO
30 BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
BITTER COLD THIS WEEKEND IS PRIMARY HAZARDOUS WEATHER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALSO, LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD CAUSE SLIPPERY
TRAVEL IN SOME AREAS.
NEAR TERM THROUGH TONIGHT...NW FLOW IN WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
IS BRINGING A FEW FLURRIES TO DOOR COUNTY AND THE LAKESHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH SOME CLOUDS OVER THE NORTH AND EAST. COLDER
TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS. MID CLOUDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND BANDED
SNOW. BULK OF SNOW REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH, BUT ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN DGZ ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SYSTEM THIS EVENING TO
PRODUCE FLURRIES IN CENTRAL WI.
LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY...
ARCTIC FRONT DRIVING SOUTH ACROSS ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN EARLY
TODAY REACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT, AND CROSSES WI ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WITH INCREASING LIFT IN THE DGZ WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES REGION-WIDE.
SNOWFALL WILL BE LESS THAN 1" BUT COULD LEAD TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL.
SW WINDS SHIFT NW AND WILL BECOME GUSTY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
PROBABILITIES ARE 70-90 PERCENT CENTRAL TO EAST- CENTRAL WI FOR
SEEING GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING, DRIFTING
OF ANY FRESH SNOW. SNOW TAPERS QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
EXITS EAST.
HAZARDOUS COLD THIS WEEKEND...
BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO -25C SWEEPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. PEAK OF COLD IS SATURDAY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO IN CENTRAL WI, AND
EVEN TOWARD THE FOX VALLEY. RECORD COLD MAXIMUM TEMP AT AUW ON
SATURDAY IS 0 SET IN 1985. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS -2F. MAYBE
DOOR COUNTY WILL SEE DOUBLE DIGIT HIGHS. NOWHERE ELSE THOUGH, EVEN
ALONG THE LAKESHORE. THESE VALUES WILL BE AT LEAST 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE LEAST, COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. BUT, RISK OF FALLING TO EXTREME
COLD WARNING CRITERIA HAS ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT DATA SHOWED 24 HR AGO. CHANCES OF SEEING
WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 35 BELOW ZERO OVER CENTRAL WI ARE 35-55%,
AND ARE 30-40% FOX VALLEY TO THE LAKESHORE WHERE CRITERIA IS 30
BELOW ZERO. DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS DROPPING ACROSS WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, POTENTIAL FOR REACHING WARNING THRESHOLDS SATURDAY
NIGHT ARE LESS THAN 15% ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE
COLD CONSIDERING WE ARE ONLY INTO MID DECEMBER.
TEMPS ON THE REBOUND NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL PRECIP CHANCES...WHAT
GOES DOWN MUST COME UP. THAT OCCURS IN THIS CASE AS SHARPLY
NEGATIVE 850MB TEMP ANOMALIES THIS WEEKEND ARE REPLACED BY SHARPLY
POSITIVE ANOMALIES TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LAST TIME WE
HIT FREEZING AT GRB WAS NOVEMBER 26TH. APPEARS WE'LL BREAK THIS
STREAK BY WEDNESDAY, WHEN FORECAST POINTS TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHER RANGE OF NBM HIGHS SUGGESTS IT COULD EVEN OCCUR ON
TUESDAY. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS WARMUP WILL BRING ANY OF THE
TYPICAL WARMUP OVER COLD GROUND/SNOWPACK ISSUES WE CAN SEE SUCH AS
FOG AND/OR FOR "NON TRADITIONAL" FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE (THIS
OCCURS EVEN AS AIR TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING AS THE
GROUND IS STILL QUITE COLD). LEADING WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MIDWEEK, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX, BEFORE COLDER AIR RETURNS. PLENTY OF
TIME TO SORT OUT THESE DETAILS.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST WED DEC 10 2025
LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY DEPARTING CENTRAL WI, BUT WERE SPREADING
BACK INTO NC/NE WI LATE THIS EVENING. WILL ONLY CARRY MVFR
CEILINGS AT THE RHI TAF SITE FOR NOW, BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED, AS THE CLOUDS WERE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF ERODING AS
THEY PUSHED SOUTH. WILL KEEP THE LOW CEILINGS IN AT RHI UNTIL
LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH/MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND THESE SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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