780
FXUS63 KGRB 121002
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
402 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BRING ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH
TO THE AREA TODAY. THE SNOW MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY SLICK TRAVEL.
- BITTERLY COLD THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
ZERO OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL WI ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT WIND CHILLS WILL FALL AS LOW AS 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
- A RAPID WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING INTO THE 30S BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
ROUND OF SNOW TODAY...
A MIDDLE LEVEL-SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY LEADING TO A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. EXPECT SNOW TO ARRIVE INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL WI ABOUT 8-9AM THIS MORNING AND SPREAD EAST REACHING
THE LAKESHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE
LIMITED TODAY (PWATS LESS THAN 0.25") FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH A DEEP DGZ PROMOTING SLRS OF 15-
20:1. THESE HIGH SLRS SHOULD ALLOW UP TO AN INCH OF POWDERY SNOW TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI WITH A DUSTING UP TO A HALF INCH
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. BEHIND THE FRONT LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO STEEPEN TO 7-8C/KM WHICH COULD AID IN A FEW
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITHING THE CAA REGIME.
ISOLATED SLIPPERY SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADS.
DANGEROUS COLD THIS WEEKEND...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY THERMAL FIELDS WILL CRASH AS BITTERLY
COLD ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. TONIGHT LOWS
AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL FALL TO 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
STEADY NW WINDS WITHIN THE CAA WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THESE COLD WIND CHILLS A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL BUT DOOR COUNTY BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. EVEN IF
BROKEN STATUS LINGER TONIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN FORECAST THE STRONG CAA AND BREEZY NW WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN
WIND CHILLS AROUND COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (-20 IN EAST-
CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WI AND -25 IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WI).
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MODERATE
MUCH WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 3 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN
CENTRAL WI TO AROUND 5 DEGREES IN NORTH-EAST WI. WITH WIND CHILLS
NOT WARMING MUCH ABOVE CRITERIA IN CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI
DECIDED TO RUN THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BE
BITTERLY COLD, HOWEVER, WITH THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR SHIFTING
FURTHER SOUTH INTO IOWA AREAS IN FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI
MAY NOT GET AS COLD AS TONIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY ONLY COVERING CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI THROUGH 10AM
SUNDAY MORNING. ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE TO THE HEADLINE
DURING THIS PERIOD BASED OF CLOUD AND WIND TRENDS.
WARMING TREND LIKELY BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AS THE RIDGE THAT HAS
DOMINATED THE WESTERN CONUS THE LAST TWO WEEKS STARTS TO BREAK DOWN
AND SHIFT EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RAPID WARM UP EARLY IN THE WEEK.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON NBM PROBS FOR TEMPS GREATER THAN 32 DEGREES
INCREASE TO 70-80% ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THOSE PROBS
INCREASE TO GREATER THAN 90% FOR MOST AREAS BY WEDNESDAY, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT-WAVE COULD BRING A ROUND OF
SNOW TO NORTHERN WI MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM
LOOKS POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE TO BACK HALF OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD WITH THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE THE DRIVING TROUGH. WHILE IT IS STILL 6/7 DAYS OUT MEAN
FLOW PATTERS SUGGEST AREAS SOUTH OF HWY 8 COULD END OF ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
STRATUS STILL COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS EVENING, AND WAS GRADUALLY FILLING BACK IN OVER THE
FOX VALLEY. THINK ALL OF THE TAF SITES WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT, THOUGH IT SHOULD BE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD
AT AUW/CWA, WITH LOW CLOUDS DEPARTING RHI/GRB/ATW/MTW EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER THE FOX
VALLEY AND POSSIBLY NC WI OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADDED SOME MVFR/IFR FOG,
ESPECIALLY AT ATW AND RHI, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE FRONT. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO FRAME OUT THE MOST LIKELY 2-3
HOUR PERIOD OF SNOW AT EACH TAF SITE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DROP
TO MVFR/IFR, WITH THE LOWEST VSBYS EXPECTED AT THE WESTERN TAF
SITES. EVEN AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS OFF, MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
WELL INTO THE EVENING AT MOST LOCATIONS.
AFTER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, SW
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BEFORE SHIFTING W AND GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KTS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-021-073-074.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR WIZ018>020-030-031-035>040-045-048>050.
DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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