924
FXUS63 KGRB 160820
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
220 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LITTLE TO
NONE.
- STRONG LOW SYSTEM CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WHILE SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE LOW, REFREEZING AND STRONG WINDS COULD LEAD TO
SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS AND SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.
- ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND,
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY,
A TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW SHORT RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLURRIES IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SO
RETAINED MUCH OF THE LOW END POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANY FLURRIES
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT WITH LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOG WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
MIDWEEK ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM...
A VERY DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY, WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY NOT SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AMPLE WARM AIR REMAINS
WRAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING A NON-DIURNAL TREND OF
RISING SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT, INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO PREDOMINANTLY RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED, BUT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER TO WARM OVERNIGHT (MOST NOTABLY
ROAD SURFACES) SOME ICING POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THIS PERIOD.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IDEA, WITH AROUND 30-40%
CHANCE OF PICKING UP SOME LIGHT (AT LEAST 0.01") OF ICING,
CONCENTRATED IN MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. COLDER
AIR THEN WRAPS IN QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION BACK OVER TO SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW, WITH
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE PAINTING OUT AROUND 20-30% CHANCES OF
GETTING TO AN INCH. MORE TROUBLESOME WILL BE THE RAPID REDUCTION
IN AIR TEMPERATURES, WHICH MAY BRING A FLASH FREEZE TO ANY
LINGERING WET UNTREATED SURFACES AROUND THE THURSDAY COMMUTE.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WITH TWO PEAKS IN
GUSTS, ONE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARM
AIR ARRIVES AND THE OTHER IN THE EVENING AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
END OF THE WEEK...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER BEHIND THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REST OF THE AREA. THE
NEXT CLIPPER THEN LINES UP FOR THE LATE WEEKEND PERIOD. EARLY
INDICATIONS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BUT AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON THE FINAL TRACK
AS WE GET CLOSER. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN IN THE
30S UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. THE STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST SHOULD MOVE OUT LATER TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SCT- BKN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY; HOWEVER, IMPACTS WILL BE DE
MINIMIS AS ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING, WITH MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS ON TUESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....UHLMANN
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
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