681
FXUS63 KGRB 161752
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1152 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 913 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN WEST CENTRAL WI,
AND IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL WI. THIS IS BEING DRIVEN BY WAA ON THE
NOSE OF A 40+ KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET AND A WEAK SHORT-WAVE. MOISTURE
IS VERY SPARSE, AND THIS PRECIPITATION IS FALLING FROM A 9-12K FT
CLOUD DECK, SO MUCH OF THIS WILL EVAPORATE/SUBLIMATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND. A PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER ALOFT (FULL MELTING)
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S (FREEZING ON
CONTACT WITH SURFACE) MAKES FREEZING RAIN THE DOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE. MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND LOW-IMPACT, BUT
WITHIN THE HEAVIER RADAR ECHOES (LIKE THOSE HEADED TOWARD WAUSAU),
WOULD EXPECTED SOME LIGHT ICING TO OCCUR, RESULTING IN LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN HAS
BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED, AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAS BEEN UPDATED TO DEAL WITH THIS SHORT-TERM THREAT.
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN TUESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LITTLE TO
NONE.
- STRONG LOW SYSTEM CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WHILE SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE LOW, REFREEZING AND STRONG WINDS COULD LEAD TO
SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS AND SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES.
- ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND,
ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY,
A TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW SHORT RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SMALL CHANCE FOR FLURRIES IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SO
RETAINED MUCH OF THE LOW END POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. ANY FLURRIES
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT WITH LITTLE TO
NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, FOG WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
MIDWEEK ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM...
A VERY DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY, WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY NOT SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AMPLE WARM AIR REMAINS
WRAPPED INTO THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING A NON-DIURNAL TREND OF
RISING SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A
RESULT, INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO PREDOMINANTLY RAIN FOR CENTRAL AND
EAST-CENTRAL DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED, BUT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SLOWER TO WARM OVERNIGHT (MOST NOTABLY
ROAD SURFACES) SOME ICING POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THIS PERIOD.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS IDEA, WITH AROUND 30-40%
CHANCE OF PICKING UP SOME LIGHT (AT LEAST 0.01") OF ICING,
CONCENTRATED IN MIDNIGHT TO MID MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. COLDER
AIR THEN WRAPS IN QUICKLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL CHANGE
PRECIPITATION BACK OVER TO SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN LOW, WITH
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE PAINTING OUT AROUND 20-30% CHANCES OF
GETTING TO AN INCH. MORE TROUBLESOME WILL BE THE RAPID REDUCTION
IN AIR TEMPERATURES, WHICH MAY BRING A FLASH FREEZE TO ANY
LINGERING WET UNTREATED SURFACES AROUND THE THURSDAY COMMUTE.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WITH TWO PEAKS IN
GUSTS, ONE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARM
AIR ARRIVES AND THE OTHER IN THE EVENING AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
END OF THE WEEK...
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER BEHIND THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REST OF THE AREA. THE
NEXT CLIPPER THEN LINES UP FOR THE LATE WEEKEND PERIOD. EARLY
INDICATIONS SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION BUT AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON THE FINAL TRACK
AS WE GET CLOSER. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD REMAIN IN THE
30S UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
MID/HIGH CLOUDS COVERED THE REGION AT ISSUANCE TIME, AND PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS FALLING FROM A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IN
NE WI. THIS FREEZING RAIN BROUGHT SOME LIGHT ICING TO THE AUW TAF
SITE EARLIER, AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT OCQ AND SUE, BUT STAY
NORTH OF GRB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY 19Z-20Z.
LLWS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT, AS SW
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO 45 TO 55 KNOTS, THEN VEER W-NW TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR, WITH
S-SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, THEN VEERING W-NW AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING,
WHICH WILL BRING THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND SHIFT TO THE NW, AS WELL
AS A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL MVFR CEILINGS TO ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR IN MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
DISCUSSION.....UHLMANN
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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