015
FXUS63 KGRB 162139
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
339 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY, THEN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FLASH FREEZE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRAVEL CONCERNS FROM LATE WEDENESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- PERIODIC WINDY CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE OF GALES ON LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE HELPED TO
BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MILD READINGS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
(CURRENTLY OVER MN) BRINGS A PUSH OF COLDER AIR TO THE REGION
TONIGHT. RH TIMESECTIONS SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND SATELLITE CONFIRMS ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS
OVER NE ND AND NW MN. THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY
DEEPEN JUST ENOUGH FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER FAR
NORTHERN WI TONIGHT, THOUGH THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE MUCH LIFT
IN THE SATURATED LAYER, SO IT SHOULD BE LIGHT. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT, LEADING TO PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT BE NEARLY AS WARM AS TODAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.
MID-WEEK MIXED PRECIPITATION SYSTEM...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. STRONG WAA DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM AS A 50 TO 60 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS, BUT MOISTURE
WILL INITIALLY BE LACKING DURING THE EVENING. DEEPER SATURATION
OCCURS OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO A MIX OF MAINLY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN.
THE FREEZING RAIN WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHETHER ROAD TEMPERATURES
ARE BELOW FREEZING OR NOT. SOIL TEMPERATURES AT 2 INCHES ARE ALL
IN THE 30-33 DEGREE RANGE RIGHT NOW, AND AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S WEDNESDAY EVENING, SO ROAD TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. ADDED SUB-FREEZING ROAD
TEMPERATURE GRIDS IN AWIPS TO FORCE THE INCLUSION OF FREEZING
RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END
THURSDAY MORNING AS ROAD AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CAUSE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY DROP BELOW FREEZING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CAUSING ANY WET AND
UNTREATED ROADS TO BECOME ICY IN SPOTS. ALL OF THIS POINTS TO
POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
UNDER 0.05 INCH. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR LESS
IN MOST AREAS, THROUGH TOTALS AS HIGH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN VILAS COUNTY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAKE-EFFECT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
END OF THE WEEK...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH.
WINDS...
SEVERAL PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, AS A
SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
NOT REAL CONDFIDENT WITH GALE POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THE WAA EVENTS
ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THESE SYSTEMS, THOUGH BORDERLINE GALES COULD
OCCUR DURING THE POST-FRONTAL CAA PERIODS. RIGHT NOW, GALES LOOK
MOST LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
MID/HIGH CLOUDS COVERED THE REGION AT ISSUANCE TIME, AND PATCHY
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS FALLING FROM A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IN
NE WI. THIS FREEZING RAIN BROUGHT SOME LIGHT ICING TO THE AUW TAF
SITE EARLIER, AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT OCQ AND SUE, BUT STAY
NORTH OF GRB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY 19Z-20Z.
LLWS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT, AS SW
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO 45 TO 55 KNOTS, THEN VEER W-NW TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR, WITH
S-SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, THEN VEERING W-NW AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
ATTENTION TURNS TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING,
WHICH WILL BRING THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND SHIFT TO THE NW, AS WELL
AS A PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL MVFR CEILINGS TO ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR IN MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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