000
FXUS63 KGRB 182114
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
314 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLASH FREEZE IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND ICY ROAD CONDITIONS CONTINUING TONIGHT. AN
INCH OR LESS OF SNOW IS EXPECTED MOST PLACES, THOUGH VILAS
COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME DRIFTING SNOW.
- NORTHWEST GALES EXPECTED ON LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
OF THE SYSTEM WAS STILL PULLING THROUGH EASTERN WI THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT A GENERAL BREAK IN THE PRECIPTATION HAD MOVED INTO
OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. FOGGY CONDITIONS WERE IMPROVING, BUT SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES CONTINUED OVER FAR NORTHEAST WI. ALTHOUGH THE
INITIAL COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN WI AT THIS TIME, A
SECONDARY FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WAS SURGING ACROSS MN
INTO FAR WESTERN WI. THIS WILL IMPACT NC/C WI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, AND EASTERN WI THIS EVENING. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENT
UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVING THROUGH MN, WITH SOME FAIRLY INTENSE SNOW
SHOWERS BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN MN. THESE SHOULD MOVE INTO
CENTRAL WI TOWARD 00Z/FRI.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT'S WINTRY SYSTEM:
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A FLASH FREEZE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, FOLLOWED BY AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOW AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. A STEADY LIGHT
RAIN, HIGH DEW POINTS AND FOG HAVE RESULTED IN WET ROADS
REGIONWIDE. ROADS WILL BECOME ICY AND TREACHEROUS AS SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO NC/C WI AFTER 4 PM, THE FOX
VALLEY AFTER 6 PM, AND FAR NORTHEAST WI/DOOR COUNTY AFTER 8 PM.
HAVE INCREASED POPS/QPF/SNOWFALL, AS STRONG FORCING WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THOUGH WE'RE
NOT EXPECTING SNOW SQUALLS DUE TO A LATER ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS, UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW. THE SNOW WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN WI. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH WILL ALSO CAUSE SOME
DRIFTING OF THE POWDERY SNOW LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS OVER VILAS
COUNTY, WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE COUNTY.
REST OF THE FORECAST:
A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN WI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW (1-2
INCHES). NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A ROLLER
COASTER RIDE, AS A COUPLE DIFFERENT COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION.
MARINE:
THE SOUTH FLOW/WAA PART OF THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT PRODUCED GALE FORCE
GUSTS TO THIS POINT, BUT GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY AFTER THE
ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. THE GALE WARNING
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 18Z/FRIDAY.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
WIDESPREAD LIFR AND PATCHY VLIFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DUE
VERY LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBYS IN FOG. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN
WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, AND SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
A POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR COULD
CAUSE A FLASH FREEZE ON ANY WET OR UNTREATED AIRPORT RUNWAYS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. VSBYS COULD BE REDUCED TO IFR
AT TIME THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH
POSSIBLE.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, VEERING NORTHWEST AND GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS BEHIND
THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ005-010-018-
019-030-035-036-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ011-012-020-
021-031-037>040-048>050-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
FRIDAY FOR WIZ013-022-073.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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