788
FXUS63 KGRB 211922
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
122 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUND OF SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. A NARROW SWATH OF 1-3" IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NORTH OF HWY 29 INTO DOOR CO. LESSER AMOUNTS UNDER 1" FURTHER
NORTH AND SOUTH. LINGERING PRECIPITATION MAY SEE A BRIEF WINTRY
MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
REST OF TODAY...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE REGION SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON MAY COOL A FEW DEGREES AFTER
SUNSET, HOWEVER, AS WARM AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE.
MONDAY SNOW CHANCES...
CAMS SHOW SNOW BLOSSOMING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL WI AS A LEFT ENTRANCE REGION ARRIVES TO SUPPORT ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A
DEVELOPING LLJ. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW BEING THE DOMINATE P-
TYPE DURING THE ONSET OF THIS EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, HOWEVER,
A WEAK WARM NOISE COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED POCKETS OF SNOW MIXED WITH
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL WI. AS PROFILES SATURATE THE RISK FOR
FREEZING RAIN DIMINISHES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A BAND OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL (UP TO 0.5" PER HOUR) IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AN
AREA OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL TO FAR NORTHEAST WI.
TIMING OF THOSE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES IS GENERALLY EXPECTED BETWEEN
6AM AND NOON. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST (1-3")
WITHING A NARROW CORRIDOR GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY29 INTO
DOOR CO. LESSER AMOUNTS, UNDER 1" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY
AND NORTH OF HWY 8. IMPACTS FROM THIS EVENT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW COINCIDING WITH
THE MONDAY AM COMMUTE. IF YOU ARE COMMUTING MONDAY MORNING GIVE
YOURSELF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.
AS MOISTURE GETS STRIPPED OUT OF THE COLUMN MONDAY AFTERNOON THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL WI. HOWEVER, WITH ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE FALLING ON FRESH SNOW
OR TREATED ROADS IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMIZED. ANY UNTREATED ROADS
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SLIPPERY SPOTS IMPACT THE MONDAY PM
COMMUTE.
MILD CONDITIONS REST OF THE WEEK...
HEIGHT RISES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SNOW WILL USHER SEASONALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TUESDAY. WITH UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW THEN BECOMING MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RUN 5-10 DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
GEFS/ENS HINT AT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMING
LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. ENS SOUNDINGS AND METEOGRAMS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE
A MESSY MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF 500MB GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FLOW
FIELDS SHOWS THE PATTERN BEGINNING TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH IS LEADING TO LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PERIOD AT THIS TIME. WILL NEED TO WATCH
THIS PERIOD CLOSELY AS A MESSY MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT WOULD
IMPACT POST CHRISTMAS TRAVEL.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1109 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SCATTERED MID-LEVEL (4-5KFT) MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN WI AND EASTERN MN THIS MORNING. EXPECT THOSE CLOUDS TO
STEAM OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, BUT PRODUCE LITTLE AVIATION
IMPACTS. TONIGHT STRENGTHENING WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
CREATE LLWS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
A ROUND OF SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO CENTRAL WI EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT
FLYING CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AS IFR/LOW END MVFR CIGS SPREAD IN
WITH THE SNOW. REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR VSBYS IS ALSO EXPECTED WITHIN
THE HEAVIEST SNOW. HAVE FRAMED OUT THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST
PERIODS OF SNOW WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TAF SITES. FOR GROUND
OPERATIONS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1" ARE EXPECTED AT MOST
TERMINALS, HOWEVER, A NARROW SWATH OF 1-3" IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF A
AUW TO SUE LINE.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......GK
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