414
FXUS63 KGRB 060929
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
329 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IS IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE RANGES FROM
40-100% ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY INITIALLY
BRING RAIN, THEN A WINTRY MIX, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY
SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE THIN AREA OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN FROM WOOD
COUNTY THROUGH MANITOWOC IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATE ROADS IN THE AREAS WHERE
THIS IS FALLING ARE ICE COVERED AND SLIPPERY. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA
IS A FAIRLY SMALL RIGHT NOW, UPSTREAM RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
ANOTHER AREA OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD. CAMS MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK, THEN THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXITING THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MAINLY
BE LIQUID, WITH SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAUSING
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING, IT WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH THE
DAYTIME AND ROAD TREATMENTS LIMITING IMPACTS BY THE TIME THE
AFTERNOON ARRIVES. HREF PROBABILITIES ARE STILL 30-60% FOR
EXCEEDING 0.1" OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA. THEREFORE, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HEADLINES IN THEIR CURRENT LOCATIONS THROUGH NOON AS THIS IS WHEN
THE MOST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING, BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED WINTRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
AREA. HOWEVER, UNLIKE THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE DEEPER MOISTURE
SO A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THEREFORE, ANY WINTRY MIX WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD NOT HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ACROSS THE REGION.
A DRY AND WARMER STRETCH IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S, MINIMAL
WIND, AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
ANOTHER PAIR OF SYSTEMS IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH MAY BRING TWO BATCHES
OF PRECIP TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FLUCTUATING
ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING, SO A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WOULD BE
EXPECTED. FREEZING RAIN/ICING POTENTIAL LOOKS LESS LIKELY WITH
THIS EVENT. RECENT MODEL TRENDS ARE A BIT QUICKER AND STRONGER
WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM, WITH PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS SOON AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND ONE
TRACKING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AS THEY
TRACK THROUGH WITH THE EXACT TRACKS OF THE LOWS DETERMINING HOW
MUCH SNOW FALLS. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS SATURDAY WITH A 40-60% CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
LOW STRATUS AND FOG COVERED NORTH CENTRAL WI AND AN MVFR CLOUD
DECK WAS MOVING IN AND OUT OF MTW LATE THIS EVENING. THE REST OF
THE CWA WAS FREE OF LOW CLOUDS. A NARROW FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA, AND WAS POISED TO MOVE INTO ATW AND MTW RIGHT
AROUND ISSUANCE TIME.
HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF FREEZING RAIN AT AUW/CWA/GRB BY A
FEW HOURS, AND DELAYED THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CEILINGS UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES MAY WARM JUST
ENOUGH TO CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT WITH SOIL TEMPERATURES STILL BELOW FREEZING,
THINK IT'S BEST TO KEEP FREEZING RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT WEAKENS TUESDAY MORNING, LIKELY LEADING TO A
SWITCHOVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW. MODELS ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION REGIONWIDE AS A
SHORT-WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE
ADDED SOME SNOW/SLEET NORTH AND WEST, WITH MAINLY RAIN AT THE
EASTERN TAF SITES UNTIL EARLY EVENING. SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENTS IN
FLIGHT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS IN
THE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ018>020-022-
030-031-035>039-045-048-049-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ040-
050.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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