398
FXUS63 KGRB 061746
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1146 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND/OR EARLY THIS EVENING. DETAILS FOLLOW.
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN SHIFTING BACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS HAVE STARTED TO NUDGE UPWARD, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 10 AND THE NEAR THE LAKESHORE, BUT ELSEWHERE THEY HAVE BEEN
STEADY, WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S FAR NORTH AND READINGS 30-32F ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 29 CORRIDOR AND INTO FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. WARM NOSE
ALOFT, CENTERED AROUND 900MB, FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIQUID. SO,
IMPACTS FROM HERE ON OUT WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON BOTH AIR AND ROAD
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
ENOUGH REPORTS OF ESPECIALLY UNTREATED ROADS AND EVEN SOME MORE
MAJOR ROADS BEING VERY SLIPPERY AND ICY, THAT HAVE EXTENDED ADVISORY
OVER CENTRAL WI UNTIL 21Z/3 PM AND OVER THE REST OF THE ORIGINAL
ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 00Z/6 PM TO CAPTURE THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIER
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IMPACTS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FOX VALLEY WILL PROBABLY BECOME MORE LIMITED AS THE AFTERNOON
WEARS ON AS TEMPERATURE ARE THE MOST MARGINAL THERE.
LAST, BUT NOT LEAST, IS THE DENSE FOG THAT HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING
OVER ESPECIALLY THE FOX VALLEY AND FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE FOG
OVER THE NORTH HAS IMPROVED, BUT LOCALLY DENSE FOG STILL PERSISTING
OVER THE FOX VALLEY. GENERALLY, THIS FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE STEADIER RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN IS IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE RANGES FROM
40-100% ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY INITIALLY
BRING RAIN, THEN A WINTRY MIX, BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY
SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
THE THIN AREA OF FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN FROM WOOD
COUNTY THROUGH MANITOWOC IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT INDICATE ROADS IN THE AREAS WHERE
THIS IS FALLING ARE ICE COVERED AND SLIPPERY. ALTHOUGH THIS AREA
IS A FAIRLY SMALL RIGHT NOW, UPSTREAM RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
ANOTHER AREA OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD. CAMS MODELS INDICATE THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK, THEN THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXITING THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL MAINLY
BE LIQUID, WITH SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES CAUSING
PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING, IT WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH THE
DAYTIME AND ROAD TREATMENTS LIMITING IMPACTS BY THE TIME THE
AFTERNOON ARRIVES. HREF PROBABILITIES ARE STILL 30-60% FOR
EXCEEDING 0.1" OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CURRENT
ADVISORY AREA. THEREFORE, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HEADLINES IN THEIR CURRENT LOCATIONS THROUGH NOON AS THIS IS WHEN
THE MOST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING, BRINGING THE AFOREMENTIONED WINTRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
AREA. HOWEVER, UNLIKE THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE DEEPER MOISTURE
SO A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THEREFORE, ANY WINTRY MIX WITH THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD NOT HAVE A HIGH IMPACT ACROSS THE REGION.
A DRY AND WARMER STRETCH IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S, MINIMAL
WIND, AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
ANOTHER PAIR OF SYSTEMS IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH MAY BRING TWO BATCHES
OF PRECIP TO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE DETAILS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE FLUCTUATING
ABOVE AND BELOW FREEZING, SO A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WOULD BE
EXPECTED. FREEZING RAIN/ICING POTENTIAL LOOKS LESS LIKELY WITH
THIS EVENT. RECENT MODEL TRENDS ARE A BIT QUICKER AND STRONGER
WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM, WITH PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS SOON AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND ONE
TRACKING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AS THEY
TRACK THROUGH WITH THE EXACT TRACKS OF THE LOWS DETERMINING HOW
MUCH SNOW FALLS. RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS SATURDAY WITH A 40-60% CHANCE FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
DENSE FOG OVER THE FOX VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN (WITH REDUCTIONS TO VSBY)
MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL END MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI
AND EARLY THIS EVENING OVER EASTERN WI. A BIT OF SLEET OR SNOW
MAY MIX WITH THE PRECIP AS IT ENDS. SINCE THE FREEZING LINE RUNS
ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND IS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD, EXPECT THE
PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY SWITCH TO MAINLY RAIN AT GRB/ATW BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL MAINLY BE LIFR-IFR, THOUGH POCKETS OF
MVFR COULD OCCUR THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS THIS EVENING, EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. CIGS WILL BE LIFR-IFR AND VSBY COULD DROP
TO LESS THAN 1/2SM AT CWA/AUW AND RHI, WHILE BEING MAINLY MVFR
ELSEWHERE.
ON WEDNESDAY, AFTER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ018-
030-035-036-045.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ019-
020-022-031-037>039-048-049-074.
UPDATE.........JLA
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......JLA
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