391
FXUS63 KGRB 071105
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
505 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SLIPPERY TRAVEL IS
POSSIBLE.
- RAIN AND SOME SNOW EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW HIGHEST OVER
NORTHERN WI (30-50%).
- ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
RANGE FROM 50-70%.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
DENSE FOG AND FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LED TO DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS PROG THIS
FOG TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FREEZING FOG, WHICH
COULD MAKE TRAVEL SLIPPERY FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME MIXING, THEN FORM
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE
ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
ONCE AGAIN, SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL MEAN FREEZING FOG COULD
MAKE TRAVEL SLIPPERY LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH
COULD AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE NOT YET
ANTICIPATED; HOWEVER, IF VISIBILITIES DROP AND STAY BELOW ONE
QUARTER OF A MILE WILL ISSUE THE APPROPRIATE HEADLINES.
FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN INTO WESTERN QUEBEC BY FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF
THE LOW WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
MAINLY RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SNOW MIXING IN ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY EVENING AND TRANSITIONING OVER TO ALL
SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OR MORE OF
SNOW HAS INCREASED A BIT FROM THE LAST RUN AT 30 TO 50% ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH A 10 TO 30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2
INCHES ACROSS THIS AREA.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THERE WILL BE A HEALTHY DOSE OF MAINLY
RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.50 TO 0.75; HOWEVER, THERE
IS A LOW END RISK (20-40%) OF EXCEEDING 1 INCH OF RAIN SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM WAUSAU TO MARINETTE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE
ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY. GIVEN THE MELTING SNOW AND IF THIS MUCH
RAINFALL OCCURS, COULD HAVE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES WHERE
STREET DRAINS COULD BE CLOGGED WITH ICE AND SNOW AND ALSO IN
OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS.
SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND WILL INVOLVE PHASING
BETWEEN A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS. THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM; THEREFORE, PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE ALL SNOW. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM, AS EVIDENCED BY THE VERY LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
THE PROBABILITIES FOR PLOWABLE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA (2 INCHES OR
MORE) HAS AGAIN INCHED UPWARD TO 50 TO 70% THIS RUN, WHICH IS A
10% INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO FOLLOW
THIS SECOND SYSTEM FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 505 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH LIFR/IFR
CEILINGS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP AT
TIMES AS WELL WITH FOG, ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. SOME IMPROVEMENT WILL ARRIVE LATER TODAY AS WARMER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVE, WHICH SHOULD BRING IMPROVING FLYING
CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. FOG MAY RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT, AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE DEW POINT VALUES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
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