357
FXUS63 KGRB 101749
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1149 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
AND NEW INFORMATION ADDED TO UPDATE SECTION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
UPDATED POPS/QPF/SF GRIDS EARLIER AND BEEFED UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A
BIT IN FAR NORTHEAST WI. WILL BE ADDING FLORENCE COUNTY TO THE
ADVISORY, AS THEY LOOK TO REMAIN WITHIN THE PIVOT POINT OF THE
MAIN SNOW BAND THROUGH MID-EVENING. UPDATED WSW WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS IN FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR DOOR COUNTY.
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
- AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN FALL AGAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
SNOWFALL TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TODAY. THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE AND SNOW
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON, THEN PIVOT BACK SOUTH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL SEE
A REPRIEVE FROM THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON, ANOTHER PUSH OF SNOW WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALONG WITH THE PIVOT
ZONE ACROSS DOOR AND MARINETTE COUNTIES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH DOOR COUNTY GETTING
AROUND 6 INCHES, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY
IN THE PIVOT ZONE OF THE SNOW. VILAS COUNTY COULD ALSO SEE 2 TO 3
INCHES WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NBM PROBABILITIES
ARE 50-60% FOR EXCEEDING 4 INCHES ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND FAR
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN, WITH AROUND 50% OF EXCEEDING 6 INCHES FOR
DOOR COUNTY.
GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND NBM PROBABILITIES, WILL ISSUE
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FOR THE INITIAL PUSH OF SNOW THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE BREAK IN THE SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS THIS EVENING OF ONLY A HALF INCH OR SO WILL NOT
CARRY THE HEADLINE INTO THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH WILL KEEP THE
SAME TIMING FOR SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY FOR THE SAME REASONS IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BUT WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR MARINETTE COUNTY THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO
NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO
THE REGION WHERE THE SNOWBAND WILL PIVOT.
DESPITE ONLY A 50% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 6 INCHES WITH THE NBM,
THERE ARE ENOUGH MODELS THAT GENERATE 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW
ACROSS DOOR COUNTY DURING THIS EVENT. ALSO, SINCE DOOR COUNTY, AND
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY, WILL BE IN THE PIVOT ZONE FOR
THE ENTIRE EVENT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN THE NBM IN SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 6 INCHES. THEREFORE, WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR DOOR COUNTY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS MOST AREAS
WILL NOT SEE A BREAK IN THE SNOWFALL.
FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY NIGHT...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND COULD BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AND SLIPPERY ROADS
ACROSS THE AREA. A SECOND STRONGER CLIPPER ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND IMPACTS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO LAKE- EFFECT EXPECTED OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY; HOWEVER, NWP MODELS SHOW QUITE A BIT
OF DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW THROUGH THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A BIT THIS WEEKEND, THEN WARM TO ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DECENT SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS FOLLOWS THE MIDWEEK CLIPPER SYSTEM, LEADING TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE MODERATE SNOW BAND WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF GRB/ATW/MTW
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, BUT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST WI THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL FILL IN ACROSS
THE WESTERN TAF SITES AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW
WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS OCCURRING AT THE EASTERN
TAF SITES. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL END LATER TONIGHT, WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY.
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTOINNUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE SOME LLWS TONIGHT, ENDING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ013-
073.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ039-
040-049-050-074.
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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