212
FXUS63 KGRB 281750
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1150 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE (100% CONFIDENCE)
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM -10
IN THE FOX VALLEY TO -25 IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK-WEEK, WITH ONLY A
30% CHANCE OF FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN WI.
- GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK TRENDING BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 20S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY: MAINLY DRY AND CONTINUED COLD
THERE IS AROUND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MINIMAL-IMPACT, LAKE-EFFECT,
FLURRIES ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ACCUMULATION-WISE, NO
ACCUMULATION TO A LIGHT DUSTING IS EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS KEEPING
WISCONSIN UNDER COLD LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT, LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO
AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO.
THE RANGE OF EXPECTED WIND CHILL VALUES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT ARE IN THE -20 TO -25 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL THROUGH
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN, AND IN THE -10 TO -15 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
THE FOX VALLEY REGION. AS A RESULT, COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES
ARE NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME FOR TONIGHT AND/OR TOMORROW NIGHT... BUT
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING IN THE 10TH TO 20TH
PERCENTILES RELATIVE TO CLIMO, THE PATTERN FAVORS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. A FEW FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS COULD NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT
PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AT TIMES WITH LOW CHANCES FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG PARTS OF THE WESTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE TOWARDS FRIDAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURN
NORTHERLY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AS THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND
AND MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE WITH WARM ADVECTION, THERE REMAINS A
CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY REBOUND OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION REMAIN LOW INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME LOW (20-40%)
SNOW CHANCES BY SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH MODEST MOISTURE RETURN AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
SCT TO BKN MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 1500-2500 FT AGL WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AT TIMES. SCATTERED
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT WILL REFRAIN FROM INCLUDING DUE TO
THE LOW COVERAGE EXPECTED. VILAS COUNTY WILL SEE THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO LAKE EFFECT OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR.
CLEARING IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BELT OF FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WI. HAVE MVFR AND IFR
CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KRHI FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AND IFR CIGS AS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS IS SO DRY.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAK GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO UNDER 10 KTS AFTER
00Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH
SOME LINGERING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KOTENBERG
AVIATION.......KRUK/MPC
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