515
FXUS63 KGRB 290506
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1106 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM
NEAR 20 BELOW ZERO IN THE FOX VALLEY TO NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO IN
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- BESIDES NON-IMPACTFUL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT TIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW (20-40%)
ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW,
AIDED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, PREVAILS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE AND DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO, AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 10S ABOVE ZERO FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE THE COLDEST
WIND CHILLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
VALUES NEARING 20 BELOW IN THE FOX VALLEY AND FAR NE WI, AND
NEARING 25 BELOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WHILE THESE
LOWEST VALUES ARE RIGHT AT COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA, THEY
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD OR OCCUR FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME
PERIOD TO JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE WITH RIDGING OCCURRING OVER
THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY REBOUND TO NEAR
NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S) FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION TRENDS...
GIVEN THE MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AT TIMES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, PRODUCING LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT SNOW CHANCES (15-25%) ALONG
THE WI/UPPER MI BORDER. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A LIGHT
DUSTING TO UP TO 0.5 INCHES RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WEAK MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHEASTERLY ALLOWING MOISTURE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TO MOVE
ONSHORE AND PRODUCE CHANCES FOR LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN EAST-
CENTRAL WI (15-25%) FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE CHANCES ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO MID/LONG RANGE
MODEL DIFFERENCES, ANTICIPATE THESE CHANCES TO INCREASE WITH LATER
FORECASTS AS DETAILS FROM HI-RES MODELS COME INTO THE PICTURE.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, PROVIDING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SNOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES
AS THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
BKN MVFR-LOW VFR CIGS WITH A FEW FLURRIES PREVAIL FROM NORTHERN
TO NORTHEAST WI. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHERN
WI, INCLUDING AT RHI, WHILE CLOUDS DECREASE ELSEWHERE.
ON THURSDAY, MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTH. A FEW FLURRIES
MAY OCCUR AT TIMES, BUT GREATER SNOW CHANCES WILL REMAIN OVER FAR
NORTH-CENTRAL WI CLOSER TO THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS WILL BECOME BROKEN LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, LOWERING TO MVFR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS
WILL STAY LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER, THE CLOUDS COULD PERSIST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN, INCLUDING
AT MTW, AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SHIFT ONSHORE AT TIMES
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KRUK
AVIATION.......JLA
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