208
FXUS63 KGRB 291828
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1228 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM NEAR 15
BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN MODERATE
SLIGHTLY TOWARD NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.
- BESIDES NON-IMPACTFUL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT TIMES
THROUGH FRIDAY, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW (20-50%)
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS...
THE ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO
THE REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY, AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID-TEENS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO TO AROUND ZERO IN MOST SPOTS, WITH A FEW DOUBLE DIGIT
BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE COLD SPOTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL WI IF WE
CAN GET THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR. WHERE THE WINDS DO NOT DECOUPLE AND
BECOME CALM, WIND CHILLS WILL BE APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY HITTING
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA BOTH THIS MORNING AND OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 BELOW AND 25 BELOW.
WITH CURRENT TEMPS/WINDS HAVING EVERYONE JUST SHY OF CRITERIA OR
NOT AT CRITERIA FOR LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OR WIDESPREAD ENOUGH (BOTH
HREF AND REFS SHOWING UNDER 20-40% PROBABILITY OF REACHING
CRITERIA), THERE ARE NO PLANS FOR AN ADVISORY, BUT IT WILL REMAIN
QUITE COLD FOR ANYONE VENTURING OUTSIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
IN THE HWO.
AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR SHIFTS SOUTH/EAST THIS WEEKEND,
TEMPS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TOWARD NORMAL. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE NEXT WEEK AS FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
HIGHS LOOK TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. WIND CHILLS SHOULD MAINLY
STAY ABOVE ZERO AS WELL.
SNOW CHANCES/TRENDS...
AS MOIST, NORTHWEST/NORTH FLOW CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, LOOK
FOR VERY LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY TO SPREAD
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE (DUSTING
TO A TENTH OR TWO) OR NO ACCUMULATION. COULD BE A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY, ALONG WITH A LITTLE SUNSHINE FOR SOME (MAINLY IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS) THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN LOOK FOR MORE CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. DID EXPAND
THE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TOWARD THE HWY 29 CORRIDOR, BUT NO IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED.
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE LAKE MICHIGAN, WHERE A CONVERGENCE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL DEVELOP AS WINDS TURN NORTH/NORTHEAST. CAMS
SHOWING A DOMINATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ORGANIZING OVER THE MID-
LAKE TONIGHT. QUESTION WILL BECOME HOW FAR IT CAN SHIFT WEST
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS WINDS ATTEMPT TO SHIFT MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH. A COUPLE
NEGATIVES TO CONSIDER FOR THE BAND MAKING IT ONSHORE ARE THE
INCREASING ICE COVERAGE ON/NEAR THE WI SHORELINE, WHICH COULD
LIMIT/IMPACT THE BAND AS IT HEADS WESTWARD, ALONG WITH N/NNW WINDS
OVER LAND WHICH WILL HELP THE BAND STAY OVER THE WATER. ONE
UNIQUE SCENARIO THAT COULD PLAY OUT IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
MESOLOW, WHICH COULD PINWHEEL THE MAIN BAND TOWARD THE WI SHORE,
POSSIBLY BRINGING IN A PERIOD OF BRIEF HEAVIER SNOW, MAINLY SOUTH
OF STURGEON BAY. THIS WOULD BE THE ONE SCENARIO WHERE A SMALL AREA
NEAR THE LAKE WOULD SEE SOME IMPACTFUL SNOW (AROUND AN INCH). FOR
NOW, WILL STICK WITH 15-30% POPS NEAR THE SHORE, WITH ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER A HALF INCH, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NBM/HREF SHOWING
UNDER A 50% CHANCE FOR A HALF INCH.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR AN AREA-WIDE LIGHT SNOW EVENT ARRIVES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEMS SWINGS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. CURRENTLY HAVE 40-50% POPS, BUT AS WITH THE LAST
CLIPPER, IMAGINE POPS FOR A 6-HOUR PERIOD WILL CREEP UP AS WE
APPROACH THE EVENT. IT WILL BE ANOTHER QUICK MOVER WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE, SO EXPECTED UNDER AN INCH OF SNOW (LREF AND NBM
PROBABILITIES OF OVER AN INCH UNDER 30% FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN VILAS CO. ON THE LREF). THERE COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH SNOW TO CREATE SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL WI. LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE MAINLY ABOVE 3KFT, BUT SOME LOWER MVFR
BASES ARE IN THE MIX IN SPOTS. GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH THE
CURRENT SKY CONDITIONS, LEADING TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE GOING FORWARD. RELIED MORE SO ON CURRENT OBS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN WI WILL CONTINUE TO
MIGRATE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
CLOUDS, ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE LIMITED TO BRIEF VSBY DROPS.
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH MTW, BUT IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR IF IT WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING LOWER
FLYING CONDITIONS. CLOUDS LOOK TO SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....BERSCH
AVIATION.......KLJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page