830
FXUS63 KGRB 311146
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
546 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH (60%
CHANCE) TO ONE INCH (10-30% CHANCE) ARE EXPECTED. SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WHICH MAY EXTEND INTO THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
- A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WHILE SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND TRACK UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN, THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 20S
WILL BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
ASIDE FROM SOME LAKE-ENHANCED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN
NORTH CENTRAL WI, PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED IN MOST AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS PERSISTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A LARGE WEDGE OF
CLEARING IN BETWEEN. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY, AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND THIS MORNING. WITH THE ARCTIC
AIR MASS FINALLY DISLODGED, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S REGIONWIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT, THOUGH A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE AND INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING
TOO FAR. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO, THOUGH A COUPLE COLD SPOTS COULD BRIEFLY DROP A FEW
DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING SUNDAY. STRONG
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WILL SHEAR APART
PARTIALLY AS IT DIGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING APPEARS MODEST,
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 130-140 PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL
SUPPORT A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW EXISTS
FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
SPREADING TO EASTERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY EVENING. MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD RECEIVE AROUND A HALF INCH OF SNOW, THOUGH AMOUNTS COULD
APPROACH AN INCH IN PARTS OF NORTHERN WI. THE SNOW SHOULD END
BY MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH SLIPPERY STRETCHES COULD LINGER INTO THE
MORNING COMMUTE.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN RE-AMPLIFIES.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE A
MEAN TROUGH REINFORCES ITSELF OVER THE EAST. THIS SETUP WILL PAVE
THE WAY FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER SYSTEM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES, THOUGH LARGE
SPREADS IN MULTI-ENSEMBLE BLENDS LEAD TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DYNAMICS,
THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR BOTH ACCUMULATING SNOW
AND STRONG WIND IMPACTS. CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR SNOWFALL
GREATER THAN 1 INCH ARE HIGHEST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AT
40-60 PERCENT. THERE IS LOW-END POTENTIAL (20-40 PERCENT CHANCE)
OF GALE FORCE GUSTS NEAR DEATHS DOOR AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 20S ON MOST DAYS, AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE
LOWER 30S IN C/EC WI AHEAD OF THE LATE WEEK CLIPPER SYSTEM.
AVIATION
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
LOW CLOUDS (MVFR, WITH SOME LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS IN FAR NC WI)
COVERED THE WESTERN, NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH A LARGE WEDGE OF CLEAR SKIES IN THE MIDDLE.
THE CLEAR AREA MAY PARTIALLY FILL BACK IN EARLY THIS MORNING,
BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED, WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS THAT ALREADY HAVE LOW CLOUDS, SUSPECT WE'LL SEE MORE
BREAKS LATER IN THE MORNING, AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE DAY AND UPCOMING NIGHT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN N-NW AT 5-10 KTS FOR MOST OF TODAY, BECOMING
LIGHT SW-S THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...LIGHT SNOW MAY BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....MPC/KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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