526
FXUS63 KGRB 312021
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
221 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH (60-80%
CHANCE) TO ONE INCH (10-40% CHANCE) ARE EXPECTED. SLIPPERY
TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WHICH MAY EXTEND INTO THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
- A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WHILE SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND TRACK UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN,
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS.
- HIGHS IN THE 20S WILL BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY
REACHING 30 DEGREES AT A FEW LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
THE LOW CLOUDS FINALLY CLEAR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE 20S. FOR TONIGHT, SKIES WILL START OUT CLEAR
WITH CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT AT
MOST PLACES.
THE NEXT SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT,
BRINGING THE CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT THAT IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE SNOW TO MAKE IT INTO
FAR EASTERN WI UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON IF NOT INTO THE EVENING AT
SOME PLACES. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
OF SNOW. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF 1" OR GREATER (30-50%) ARE
ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 39 AND HIGHWAY 51. THE SNOW SHOULD
TAPER OFF EASTERN WI LATE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
OVER THE FAR NORTH, TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT, AND MORE POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM
ARRIVES ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THE CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE 40-60% AT THE MOMENT. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A NEW
WRINKLE TO THE FORECAST. THE LATEST ECMWF/CANADIAN BRING WARMER
AT 850MB INTO CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. IF THIS SCENARIO
DOES PLAY OUT, THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MIX OF SLEET OR FREEZING
RAIN THAT COULD LIMIT SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE SNOW SHOULD END BY
MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH SLIPPERY STRETCHES COULD LINGER INTO THE
MORNING COMMUTE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING 30 DEGREES THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR IS EXPECTED
NEXT SATURDAY BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
MVFR CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES AT KGRB/KATW/KMTW SHOULD END BETWEEN
20-21Z, WITH ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS AT VILAS COUNTY AIRPORTS
SHOULD ALSO END BY 21Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND ALSO
BACK SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AT KRHI AFTER
06Z DUE TO INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS NEAR THE INVERSION, PLUS
UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS WILL HAPPEN.
SNOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY, THEN SLOWLY WORK EAST INTO FAR EASTERN
WI WHERE SNOW MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY TO MID EVENING. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE UNDER AN INCH.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
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