049
FXUS63 KGRB 010853
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH (60-80% CHANCE) TO ONE
INCH (10-30% CHANCE) ARE EXPECTED. SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP, AND MAY EXTEND INTO THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
- A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WHILE SIGNIFICANT TIMING AND TRACK UNCERTAINTIES
REMAIN, THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS.
- HIGHS IN THE 20S WILL BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 30 DEGREES AT A FEW LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S-SW WINDS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SHIFTED EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM WAS OVERSPREADING MN.
CAMS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW REACHING NC/C WI LATER
THIS MORNING, BUT ERODING AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR. THIS OCCURS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT AND SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH PUSH A BAND OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW (VSBYS MOSTLY 1 1/2
TO 4 MILES) THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH POPS (AROUND 80 PERCENT) WITHIN THE
MAIN SNOW BAND, BUT DID SLOW THE ARRIVAL TIME DOWN BY AN HOUR OR
TWO. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD RECEIVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF SNOW,
AND ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SLIPPERY IN SPOTS. THE SNOW SHOULD
END BY MONDAY MORNING; WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NC WI, THOUGH SLIPPERY STRETCHES COULD
LINGER INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS LATE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN RE-AMPLIFIES.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE A
MEAN TROUGH REINFORCES ITSELF OVER THE EAST. THIS SET-UP WILL
PAVE THE WAY FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT CLIPPER SYSTEM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES, THOUGH DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND TRACK PERSIST AT THIS POINT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG DYNAMICS, THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR BOTH
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND STRONG WIND IMPACTS. CURRENT PROBABILITIES
FOR SNOWFALL GREATER THAN 1 INCH ARE HIGHEST (50-70%) ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE CWA, WITH A 30-50% CHANCE OF 2+ INCHES
OVER VILAS COUNTY AND FAR NORTHEAST WI, INCLUDING DOOR COUNTY. IF
THIS SYSTEM TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARM AIR
PULLED INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SOUTH.
THERE IS POTENTIAL (30-50% CHANCE) OF GALE FORCE GUSTS NEAR
DEATHS DOOR AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILDER SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S, AND EVEN SOME LOW TO MID 30S IN
C/EC WI THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES
IN THE WAKE OF THE LATE WEEK CLIPPER SYSTEM, AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO -20 TO -25 C. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY ON SATURDAY, BUT SHOULD REBOUND A BIT BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS REGARDING PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI (KAUW/KCWA/KRHI)
LATE TONIGHT.
CLOUDS INCREASE AND CEILINGS LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE
AROUND 18Z SUN FOR KAUW, KCWA, AND KRHI, WITH VISIBILITY LIKELY
DROPPING TO MVFR CONDITIONS (3-4SM) DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY RESIDE IN THE LOW-END MVFR RANGE
(1000-1500 FT AGL) WITHIN THE SNOW. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z MON.
MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE FOX VALLEY AND
LAKESHORE (KGRB/KATW/KMTW) BETWEEN 22Z-24Z SUN. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF
0.5 TO 1.0 INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BACKING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT 5-10 KTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE NEAR
KRHI SUNDAY MORNING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
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