709
FXUS63 KGRB 012034
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
234 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND INTO
THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
- A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS.
- HIGHS IN THE 20S WILL BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY
REACHING 30 DEGREES AT A FEW LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
SNOW CHANCES REST OF TODAY...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN WI. CURRENT THINKING IS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOW ONLY SEE A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONGER FORCING ALONG THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS HAD LEAD TO A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TREND IS EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW EXPECTED
JUST A FEW TENTHS. MAIN IMPACT FROM THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DOWN AS LOW AS 1 MILE. A DUSTING OF SNOW MAY
ALSO ACCUMULATE ON UNTREATED ROADS OVERNIGHT LEAVING A FEW SLIPPERY
SPOTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW KEEP A
~15% CHANCE FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE SNOW EARLY THIS
EVENING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING INITIALLY IN A
SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE LAYER BEFORE DEEP SATURATION ARRIVES ALONG THE
FRONT. WHILE THIS IS A SUBTLE SIGNAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ANY
ICING ON ROADS IS ALWAYS A CONCERN. IF YOU WILL BE ON THE ROAD OUT
IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI THIS EVENING DRIVE WILL EXTRA
CAUTION AS ICE MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SEE ON ANY UNTREATED ROADS.
WORK WEEK TRENDS...
WITH THE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION DEPARTING EAST MONDAY
THAT WILL ALLOW A PERIOD OF RIDGING TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR
THE FIRST HALF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A
RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AMPLIFIES WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LREF 500MB FIELDS SHOW A POTENT SHORT-WAVE
AND STRONG JET STREAK PUSHING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE (60-80%) FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THE FORECAST AREA. NBM PROBS FOR GREATER THAN 1"
ARE 30-45% ACROSS THE AREA, HIGHS IN THE NORTHERN WI SNOWBELT. PROBS
FOR GREATER THAN 3" ARE 10-20% HIGHER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI. ONE
DETAIL TO WATCH WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HOW FAR NORTH THE 850MB 0
FREEZING LINE MAKES IT THURSDAY AS A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW IT
GETTING INTO CENTRAL WI WHICH COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN. FROM AN IMPACT PROSPECTIVE EXPECT SLOWER AND POSSIBLY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL (30-50% CHANCE) OF GALE FORCE GUSTS NEAR DEATHS DOOR AS
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILDER SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S, AND EVEN SOME LOW TO MID 30S IN C/EC
WI THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE
WAKE OF THE LATE WEEK CLIPPER SYSTEM, AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
-20 TO -25 C. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY, BUT
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
MVFR STATUS DECK IS JUST STARTING TO PUSH INTO C/NC WI EARLY LATE
THIS MORNING. CIGS HAVE BEEN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING BUT WILL LOWER
AS THIS STATUS DECK PUSHES EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NE/C MN LIGHT SNOW IS IS CREATED
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS (1-3SM). AS THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS WI
THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT THESE VSBYS RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPACT ALL TAF
SITES AT TIMES. HAVE FRAMED OUT THE PERIODS WITH IFR VSBYS IN TEMPO
GROUPS AT ALL SITES. FOR AUW, CWA, AND RHI EXPECT THE GREATEST
IMPACTS BETWEEN 22-02Z. FOR THE EASTERN WI SITES ATW, GRB, AND MTW
THESE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 03-09Z. FOR GROUND OPERATIONS
DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AT ANY TERMINALS
WITH MOST SEEING A FEW TENTHS UP TO AROUND 1".
DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD HELP SCATTER OUT
THE MVFR STATUS MONDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN WI, WHILE THE LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER LONGER ACROSS NORTHERN WI AS STRATUS CONTINUES TO
STREAM OFF LAKE SUPERIOR.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GUSTS 15-
20KTS AT TIMES. BEHINDS THE FRONT WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......GK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page