687
FXUS63 KGRB 020032
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
632 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY ALSO MIX IN.
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND INTO THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
- A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS.
- HIGHS IN THE 20S WILL BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY
REACHING 30 DEGREES AT A FEW LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
SNOW CHANCES REST OF TODAY...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN WI. CURRENT THINKING IS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOW ONLY SEE A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONGER FORCING ALONG THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS HAD LEAD TO A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TREND IS EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW EXPECTED
JUST A FEW TENTHS. MAIN IMPACT FROM THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DOWN AS LOW AS 1 MILE. A DUSTING OF SNOW MAY
ALSO ACCUMULATE ON UNTREATED ROADS OVERNIGHT LEAVING A FEW SLIPPERY
SPOTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW KEEP A
~15% CHANCE FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE SNOW EARLY THIS
EVENING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING INITIALLY IN A
SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE LAYER BEFORE DEEP SATURATION ARRIVES ALONG THE
FRONT. WHILE THIS IS A SUBTLE SIGNAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ANY
ICING ON ROADS IS ALWAYS A CONCERN. IF YOU WILL BE ON THE ROAD OUT
IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI THIS EVENING DRIVE WILL EXTRA
CAUTION AS ICE MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SEE ON ANY UNTREATED ROADS.
WORK WEEK TRENDS...
WITH THE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION DEPARTING EAST MONDAY
THAT WILL ALLOW A PERIOD OF RIDGING TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR
THE FIRST HALF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A
RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AMPLIFIES WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LREF 500MB FIELDS SHOW A POTENT SHORT-WAVE
AND STRONG JET STREAK PUSHING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE (60-80%) FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THE FORECAST AREA. NBM PROBS FOR GREATER THAN 1"
ARE 30-45% ACROSS THE AREA, HIGHS IN THE NORTHERN WI SNOWBELT. PROBS
FOR GREATER THAN 3" ARE 10-20% HIGHER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI. ONE
DETAIL TO WATCH WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HOW FAR NORTH THE 850MB 0
FREEZING LINE MAKES IT THURSDAY AS A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW IT
GETTING INTO CENTRAL WI WHICH COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN. FROM AN IMPACT PROSPECTIVE EXPECT SLOWER AND POSSIBLY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL (30-50% CHANCE) OF GALE FORCE GUSTS NEAR DEATHS DOOR AS
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILDER SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S, AND EVEN SOME LOW TO MID 30S IN C/EC
WI THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE
WAKE OF THE LATE WEEK CLIPPER SYSTEM, AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
-20 TO -25 C. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY, BUT
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES, ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW, WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY ALSO OCCUR BOTH NEAR THE ONSET OF PRECIP, ALONG WITH
AS THE SNOW EXITS LATER THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED, WITH TOTALS UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH EXPECTED. A LIGHT
GLAZE IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE FZDZ OCCURS. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FZDZ
IN ANY TAF SITE JUST YET, AS HIGHER THREAT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
WI, BUT MONITORING UPSTREAM TRENDS. LINGERING FLURRIES (OR FZDZ)
WILL END EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH CLOUDS LINGER FOR PART OF THE
DAY, WITH DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS ALLOWING FOR A LEAST SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI. SOME LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL WI DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
GUSTS TO 15 KT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING REMAINING UNDER ~10 KTS OR LESS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......BERSCH
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