067
FXUS63 KGRB 020500
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1100 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW TENTHS ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY ALSO MIX IN.
SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS MAY EXTEND INTO THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
- A POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS.
- HIGHS IN THE 20S WILL BE COMMON FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY
REACHING 30 DEGREES AT A FEW LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
SNOW CHANCES REST OF TODAY...
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN WI. CURRENT THINKING IS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOW ONLY SEE A BRIEF 2-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONGER FORCING ALONG THE
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS HAD LEAD TO A SLIGHT DOWNWARD
TREND IS EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW EXPECTED
JUST A FEW TENTHS. MAIN IMPACT FROM THE SNOW WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS
OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DOWN AS LOW AS 1 MILE. A DUSTING OF SNOW MAY
ALSO ACCUMULATE ON UNTREATED ROADS OVERNIGHT LEAVING A FEW SLIPPERY
SPOTS FOR THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW KEEP A
~15% CHANCE FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AHEAD OF THE SNOW EARLY THIS
EVENING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING INITIALLY IN A
SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE LAYER BEFORE DEEP SATURATION ARRIVES ALONG THE
FRONT. WHILE THIS IS A SUBTLE SIGNAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ANY
ICING ON ROADS IS ALWAYS A CONCERN. IF YOU WILL BE ON THE ROAD OUT
IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI THIS EVENING DRIVE WILL EXTRA
CAUTION AS ICE MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SEE ON ANY UNTREATED ROADS.
WORK WEEK TRENDS...
WITH THE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION DEPARTING EAST MONDAY
THAT WILL ALLOW A PERIOD OF RIDGING TO BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION FOR
THE FIRST HALF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW CHANCES RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A
RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AMPLIFIES WITH TROUGHING DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. LREF 500MB FIELDS SHOW A POTENT SHORT-WAVE
AND STRONG JET STREAK PUSHING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE (60-80%) FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW THE FORECAST AREA. NBM PROBS FOR GREATER THAN 1"
ARE 30-45% ACROSS THE AREA, HIGHS IN THE NORTHERN WI SNOWBELT. PROBS
FOR GREATER THAN 3" ARE 10-20% HIGHER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI. ONE
DETAIL TO WATCH WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HOW FAR NORTH THE 850MB 0
FREEZING LINE MAKES IT THURSDAY AS A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW IT
GETTING INTO CENTRAL WI WHICH COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN. FROM AN IMPACT PROSPECTIVE EXPECT SLOWER AND POSSIBLY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL (30-50% CHANCE) OF GALE FORCE GUSTS NEAR DEATHS DOOR AS
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE MILDER SIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S, AND EVEN SOME LOW TO MID 30S IN C/EC
WI THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES IN THE
WAKE OF THE LATE WEEK CLIPPER SYSTEM, AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
-20 TO -25 C. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ON SATURDAY, BUT
SHOULD REBOUND A BIT BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT,
WITH POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE FLURRIES AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY ENDING AS A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXIT
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN WI (WHERE THE LOWER IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS
RESIDE), SO WILL NOT INCLUDE IN ANY TAF. NOT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, WITH TOTALS UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN
MOST LOCATIONS. A LIGHT GLAZE IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE FZDZ OCCURS.
CLOUDS LINGER INTO MONDAY AT TIMES, WITH DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST
WINDS ALLOWING FOR A LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN WI, BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE
ARRIVING. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WI DUE TO THE NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, POSSIBLY IMPACTING RHI.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING REMAINING
UNDER ~10 KTS OR LESS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....GK
AVIATION.......BERSCH
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