045
FXUS63 KGRB 161111
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
511 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG MAY RESTRICT VISIBILITIES AND IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SEVERAL
RECORD HIGHS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S.
- HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED AS DETAILS OF THE SYSTEM BECOME MORE CERTAIN.
- A SECOND STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES (40-60%
CHANCE) FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
DOPPLER RADAR AND METAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND EASTERN
MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS AREA IS PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT TRACKS EAST. CLOUD BASES OUT IN
THAT REGION ARE INITIALLY FAIRLY HIGH, AROUND 10K FT, HOWEVER THEY
ARE STEADILY LOWERING AS THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
BLOSSOM. THEREFORE, WILL REINTRODUCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION AS
THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AN AREA OF PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS FAR NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY AND
THE CENTRAL BAY SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THE FOG OUT TO THE EAST.
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO SOAR
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN, LIKELY BREAKING OR APPROACHING SEVERAL RECORD HIGH
VALUES FOR THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
COULD CREATE SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE THE FOG COULD BE MORE UBIQUITOUS THAN IT HAS IN PREVIOUS
OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
A POTENT WINTER STORM THEN TAKES AIM FOR THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL TRENDS INDICATE THAT CENTRAL AND EAST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL MAINLY SEE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM, WITH A
WINTRY MIX ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
INDICATES A 30-60% CHANCE FOR A LIGHT GLAZE, WITH A 15-25% CHANCE
FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING ONE
QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR ICE ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN 10%. FOR
SNOWFALL THE PROBABILITIES OF REACHING 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN TO
20-30% NEAR THE MICHIGAN BORDER. RIGHT NOW THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE
MORE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EVENT, FALLING SHORT OF WARNING
CRITERIA. GIVEN THE EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL PERIODS AWAY, NO
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FORECAST RUN.
THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STICK AROUND THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE (30-50%)
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WHERE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW COULD FALL.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE PLAINS DURING
THIS TIME AND TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS SECOND SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE REGION WITH BETTER CHANCES OF A WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOW. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES A 20-40%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH A 10-30% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS EVIDENCED BY THE
LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE LOWER END SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (10 AND 25TH
PERCENTILES) AND THE HIGHER END SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (75TH AND 90TH
PERCENTILES).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH WILL
RETURN TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
AVIATION
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 446 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LLWS THIS MORNING
BEFORE MIXING TO THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL BRING SOME FOG TO THE TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT. THE FOG COULD
LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY AREAS OF DENSER FOG.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
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