447
FXUS63 KGRB 170011
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
611 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD/NEAR RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OBSERVED THIS
AFTERNOON.
- HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN,
SLEET, AND SNOW. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE LIKELY.
- A SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
PRECIP CHANCES... PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE CONTINUES
TO BE ON A POTENT WINTRY SYSTEM THAT IS SET TO BRING A SLEW OF
PRECIP TYPES TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING. A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH EJECTS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY ON
TUESDAY, RESULTING IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW THEN TRACKS OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT NEAR RECORD LOW RELATIVE TO CLIMO,
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY UPON ARRIVAL. PRECIP TYPE WILL START AS RAIN
FOR MOST TUESDAY EVENING AS AN INITIAL PUSH OF WAA KEEPS THE 540
LINE OFF TO OUR NORTH, THOUGH A SURGE OF COLDER AIR ON THE BACK
END OF THE LOW WILL SPUR HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NORTHWOODS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH, THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
MIXED PRECIP TYPES. AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +2 TO 4C EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, A HUDSON BAY HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL FEED IN MUCH COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN A CLASSIC FREEZING RAIN PROFILE
FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HWY 8. GREATEST CHANCE (40 TO 70%) FOR A
GLAZING OF ICE WILL BE OVER VILAS, ONEIDA, AND FOREST COUNTIES,
WITH A LESSER SIGNAL (20 TO 40%) EXISTING FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH
OF ICE. MEAGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY EVEN SUPPORT A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. OPTED TO INCREASE SLRS SLIGHTLY
DURING THE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD AS GREATER LIFT
ARRIVES AND POTENTIAL FOR DYNAMIC COOLING OF THE COLUMN ARISES.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY AS A RESULT, WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS (3 TO 5", LOCALLY HIGHER) CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
UPPER PENINSULA BORDER. OVERALL, LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY SLAM DUNK
ADVISORY EVENT, THOUGH WE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA IN
MOST PLACES.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
END OF WEEK AS THE 500 MB WAVE TRAIN REMAINS FULL STEAM AHEAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COLDER DURING THIS TIME, FAVORING
A BETTER SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW. THOUGH ENSEMBLES
STILL SHOW A DECENT SPREAD IN BOTH TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW
THIS FAR OUT, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WOULD BE RATHER
DIFFICULT TO TAKE A MISS FROM THIS SYSTEM. WILL OBVIOUSLY NEED TO
BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, AS THE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE REMAINS RATHER LARGE AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES... RECORD/NEAR RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES READING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR
MANY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TAPS INTO 925 MB TEMPS OF +6 TO 8C.
ONLY LIMITING FACTOR TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WOULD BE MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE ALREADY PRESENT OVER SOME AREAS AS OF EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL (THOUGH NOT RECORD) TEMPERATURES
THEN CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK, MODERATING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST.
WIND/FOG... LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING MAY RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS WINDS ATTEMPT TO DECOUPLE, THOUGH
CAM CONSENSUS DOESN'T SEEM TO BE PRESENT. HOWEVER, WOULD VENTURE
TO SAY THAT FOG SHOULD PERFORM SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN IN PREVIOUS
OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS DECENT MOISTURE GETS TRAPPED UNDER A NEAR-
SURFACE INVERSION. WINDS THEN VEER TO EASTERLY AND RAMP UP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. SURFACE GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON LAND, WITH GALES POSSIBLE OVER OUR NORTHERN MARINE
ZONES.
AVIATION
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 611 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
FOR MOST OF THE REGION BUT WILL MONITOR FOR FOG POTENTIAL BOTH
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME, EXPECT FOG FROM THE LAKE TO BE LIMITED TO DOOR COUNTY
SO KEPT MTW CLEAR FOR NOW BUT SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY STILL MOVE IN
FOR A PERIOD IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. FOR THE NORTHWOODS,
GENERAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED AWAY FROM FOG DEVELOPMENT SO EXCLUDED
A MENTION IN THE 00Z TAF BUT COULD SEE FOG POSSIBLY NEEDING A
MENTION AGAIN IF THIS TREND SHOWS SIGNS OF REVERSING BY THE 06Z
TAFS.
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP BY TUESDAY EVENING AGAIN AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARDS INTO THE REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LLWS FOR THE EARLY OVERNIGHT AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....GOODIN
AVIATION.......UHLMANN
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