939
FXUS63 KGRB 171753
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1153 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, INCLUDING
DELAYING THE START TIME UNTIL 9 PM (SLOWER PRECIP ARRIVAL AND WARM
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE EARLY EVENING), FOCUSING MORE ON SLEET
(GIVEN A WEAKER WARM LAYER ALOFT), AND INCREASING SNOW AMOUNTS A
BIT IN THE FAR NORTH. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH, AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A LOCALIZED UPGRADE TO A WARNING NEAR THE
U.P. BORDER. NO CHANGES TO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ADVISORY ARE
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIP ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING, WITH A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AND SLIPPERY TRAVEL IS LIKELY.
FARTHER SOUTH, MAINLY RAIN IS FORECAST.
- SNOW IS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH A
20-60% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 2" OF SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
MAIN CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM THE
DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
COINCIDES WITH SOME LL WARM ADVECTION, MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, AND
LFQ OF UPPER JET--ALL ADDING SUFFICIENT LIFT TO THE SETUP. WHILE
THE SURFACE FEATURE STALLS OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LIFT SUBSIDES ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI. WHILE
LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE BULK OF ANY
RAIN/SNOW/MIX WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY.
PRECIP TYPES REMAIN A CHALLENGE DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME LOCATION. DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC
OUTPUT AGREE THAT CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL WI WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA.
NORTHERN WISCONSIN REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR MIXED PRECIP. THE
GREATEST PROBABILITIES (30-50%) FOR A GLAZING OF ICE (AT LEAST
0.01") IS NORTH OF A MERRILL TO ANTIGO TO MARINETTE LINE.
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE LESS THAN 20%,
ASIDE FROM EASTERN ONEIDA AND VILAS, NORTHERN LANGLADE, AND FOREST
COUNTIES WHERE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS HIGHLIGHTING THIS AREA
FOR THE GREATEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS. AS FOR SNOW, THIS SAME AREA
HAS A 20-80% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1" OF SNOW, HIGHEST NEAR FLORENCE
COUNTY, WHERE THE CHANCE FOR 4" OF SNOW IS 40%. MOST OF THIS MIX
OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAKING FOR A SLOWED AND SLIPPERY
MORNING COMMUTE.
REMNANTS FROM THIS FIRST SURFACE LOW REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WHICH WILL
KEEP CHANCES (20-40%) FOR LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FROM
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. PTYPES WOULD REMAIN
MAINLY SNOW IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN, AND RAIN ELSEWHERE. IMPACTS
FROM ANY SNOW WOULD BE MINOR AND LIMITED, BUT SOME SLIPPERY
STRETCHES ON UNTREATED ROADS COULD REMAIN.
THE NEXT FEATURE TO WATCH IS A LOW EJECTING OUT FROM COLORADO
THURSDAY, REACHING WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW MID TO LATE FRIDAY DEPENDING
ON LOCATION AND SYSTEM TIMING. A FEW CHANGEOVERS FROM RAIN TO SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE. CURRENT PROB GUIDANCE
SHOWS A 20-60% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 2" OF SNOW, HIGHEST ACROSS THE
NORTH, AND LOWEST FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE MORE RAIN IS FORECAST.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH
THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING EAST WINDS.
FLYING CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND STEADY MODERATE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 29 ARE
EXPECTING RAIN, WHILE NORTHERN WISCONSIN (INCLUDING THE RHI TAF
SITE) WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ONCE THE STEADIER PRECIP ARRIVES
TONIGHT.
E-SE SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 30 KTS TONIGHT, THEN
DIMINISH AND BECOME S-SW TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LLWS
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING, AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO 45-55 KTS AT 2K
FT AGL. THE LLWS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-019-021.
UPDATE.........KIECKBUSCH
DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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