143
FXUS63 KGRB 172057
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
257 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH MAINLY
RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN, WHERE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED. A COMBINATION OF VERY WET SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY LEAD TO TREE DAMAGE AND
SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES IN FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
- SNOW IS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH A
20-60% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 2" OF SNOW, MAINLY WEST AND
NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
AS MENTIONED IN AN EARLIER UPDATE, THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT THE START TIME
WAS DELAYED UNTIL 9 PM (SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME AND WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLY EVENING), MORE SLEET AND A LITTLE LESS
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS (WARM LAYER ALOFT GENERALLY 2 C OR
COOLER OVER MOST OF NORTHERN WI, SO ONLY PARTIAL MELTING EXPECTED),
AND GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER
(LITTLE OR NO WARM LAYER ALOFT). THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-6
INCHES OF CONCRETE SNOW IN NORTHERN FOREST, FLORENCE AND NORTHERN
MARINETTE COUNTIES COULD LEAD TO SOME TREE DAMAGE AND SPORADIC
POWER OUTAGES.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 97TH-99TH
PERCENTILE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON THE NOSE OF A
40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET, A COUPLE WELL-DEFINED FRONTOGENETIC BANDS,
SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES AND THE APPROACH OF A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT.
THE FORCING APPEARS TO COME IN TWO WAVES, ONE AT PRECIP ONSET
IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING, AND ANOTHER STRONGER BAND MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO PERIODS OF STRONGER LIFT, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL AND
PERHAPS SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING, AND THIS COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
BEST TIME PERIOD FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPMENT IN N WI.
OTHERWISE, SNOW AND SLEET LOOK TO BE THE DOMINANT P-TYPES OVER
THE NORTHWOODS. THERE ARE SEVERAL MODELS THAT STILL SHOW
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE FAR NORTH, AND
EFI/SHIFT-OF-TAILS VALUES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
EVENT NEAR THE WI/MI BORDER, SO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
WATCH OUT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT P-TYPE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 29, WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW/ICE ACCUMS
EXPECTED THERE.
VERICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, SO LIGHT PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SNOW)
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THE TIMING LOOKS
SIMILAR WITH THE MODELS, THE TRACK IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS TIME. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS SHOW A 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 2+ INCHES OF SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY. LESS SNOW
IS INDICATED FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN, DUE
TO A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE EVENT.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH
THICKENING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING EAST WINDS.
FLYING CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND STEADY MODERATE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 29 ARE
EXPECTING RAIN, WHILE NORTHERN WISCONSIN (INCLUDING THE RHI TAF
SITE) WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ONCE THE STEADIER PRECIP ARRIVES
TONIGHT.
E-SE SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 TO 30 KTS TONIGHT, THEN
DIMINISH AND BECOME S-SW TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LLWS
DEVELOPS THIS EVENING, AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO 45-55 KTS AT 2K
FT AGL. THE LLWS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-019-021.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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