528
FXUS63 KGRB 172330
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
530 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH MAINLY
RAIN FARTHER SOUTH. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN, WHERE
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED. A COMBINATION OF VERY WET SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND GUSTY WINDS MAY LEAD TO TREE DAMAGE AND
SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES IN FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
- SNOW IS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH A
20-60% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 2" OF SNOW, MAINLY WEST AND
NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
AS MENTIONED IN AN EARLIER UPDATE, THERE WERE NO CHANGES TO THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT THE START TIME
WAS DELAYED UNTIL 9 PM (SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME AND WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE EARLY EVENING), MORE SLEET AND A LITTLE LESS
FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS (WARM LAYER ALOFT GENERALLY 2 C OR
COOLER OVER MOST OF NORTHERN WI, SO ONLY PARTIAL MELTING EXPECTED),
AND GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER
(LITTLE OR NO WARM LAYER ALOFT). THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-6
INCHES OF CONCRETE SNOW IN NORTHERN FOREST, FLORENCE AND NORTHERN
MARINETTE COUNTIES COULD LEAD TO SOME TREE DAMAGE AND SPORADIC
POWER OUTAGES.
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE 97TH-99TH
PERCENTILE AND STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON THE NOSE OF A
40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET, A COUPLE WELL-DEFINED FRONTOGENETIC BANDS,
SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES AND THE APPROACH OF A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT.
THE FORCING APPEARS TO COME IN TWO WAVES, ONE AT PRECIP ONSET
IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING, AND ANOTHER STRONGER BAND MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE
TWO PERIODS OF STRONGER LIFT, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL AND
PERHAPS SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING, AND THIS COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
BEST TIME PERIOD FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPMENT IN N WI.
OTHERWISE, SNOW AND SLEET LOOK TO BE THE DOMINANT P-TYPES OVER
THE NORTHWOODS. THERE ARE SEVERAL MODELS THAT STILL SHOW
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE FAR NORTH, AND
EFI/SHIFT-OF-TAILS VALUES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
EVENT NEAR THE WI/MI BORDER, SO SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO
WATCH OUT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT P-TYPE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 29, WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW/ICE ACCUMS
EXPECTED THERE.
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, SO LIGHT PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SNOW)
WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THE TIMING LOOKS
SIMILAR WITH THE MODELS, THE TRACK IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT
THIS TIME. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS SHOW A 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
OF 2+ INCHES OF SNOW WEST AND NORTH OF THE FOX VALLEY. LESS SNOW
IS INDICATED FROM THE FOX VALLEY EAST TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN, DUE
TO A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE EVENT.
AVIATION
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FLYING CONDITIONS THEN
QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF SITES, THOUGH RHI
WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. STEADY PRECIP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERING
CIGS, WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES DROPPING TO IFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR, AND EVEN VFR,
CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS
HELP SCATTER OUT LOW STRATUS EVERYWHERE EXCEPT RHI.
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GUSTING
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS BEFORE VEERING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LLWS DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 50 TO 55 KNOTS AT 2K FT, DIMINISHING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-019-021.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......GOODIN
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