943
FXUS63 KGRB 181047
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
447 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING, WITH ANYTHING FROM FREEZING
RAIN IN THE NORTH TO THUNDER IN THE SOUTH. EXPECT A VARIETY OF
PRECIP TYPES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH A
WINDOW FOR A QUICK BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW NEAR THE U.P. BORDER
AFTER 12Z.
- SNOW IS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH A
30-60% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 2" OF SNOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FOX VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 442 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH PRECIP RANGING FROM FREEZING RAIN IN NORTHERN
WISCONSIN, TO RAIN AND EVEN SOME THUNDER IN PARTS OF CENTRAL WI
INCLUDING WISCONSIN RAPIDS, WAUTOMA, AND WAUPACA. HARD TO GAUGE
EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW/ICE HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR WITH
LIMITED OBS AVAILABLE AT THIS HOUR. CALL TO FLORENCE COUNTY
ESTIMATES ABOUT 3 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR, AND SLIPPERY AND SLUSHY
ROAD CONDITIONS. A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH, ONE WEBCAM NEAR
ATHELSTANE (MARINETTE COUNTY) SHOWS THERE HAS BEEN SOME PRECIP,
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE A COUPLE TENTHS ON AN
ELEVATED BOARD. OTHER CALLS AROUND NORTHERN WI INDICATE SOME
SLIPPERY SPOTS ON ROADS, BUT NO MAJOR ACCUMULATIONS.
GOING FORWARD, ANOTHER BAND OF STRONG FGEN (CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRECIP BAND CONTAINING LIGHTNING) WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH FROM SW TO NE. WARMER TEMPS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RAIN FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE FOCUS FOR MIXED PRECIP NORTH OF HWY 8.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME COOLING ALONG WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ BETWEEN ~12-16Z ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHICH
MEANS THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET. MODELS SHOW THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS RIGHT ALONG
THE U.P. BORDER, WITH SOME OUTPUTS EVEN CLOSER TO 6 INCHES. STRONG
DYNAMICS WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED AMOUNTS THIS HIGH, BUT EXPECT THIS
TO BE ISOLATED. THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN WI WILL STILL BE IN THE
HALF TO 2 INCH RANGE. STRONGEST FORCING DEPARTS MID- MORNING, WITH
THE BEST MOISTURE GETTING STRIPPED AWAY, TOO, SO ENDING WITH A
LITTLE ICING FROM FREEZING RAIN.
LOW REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY, WHICH
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED LIGHT/SLOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A
COUPLE TENTHS UP TO 1 INCH ARE FORECAST. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A
SLOWER RETURN TO DRY ROAD CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY OR
UNTREATED ROADS.
NEXT SYSTEM IS A COLORADO LOW MOVING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS LATE
TODAY TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY MORNING. STILL
DIFFERENCES IN SYSTEM TRACK, RESULTING IN QUITE THE SPREAD OF
POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS. ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI
10TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS ARE NEAR ZERO, WHILE 90TH PERCENTILE
AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES. HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND EAST-CENTRAL
WI, BUT 90TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS ARE STILL 1 TO 2 INCHES. STUCK
WITH A MEAN FORECAST FOR NOW WITH CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI
MOSTLY IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE, BUT THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO PIVOT EITHER WAY AND FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS TO GO UP OR
DOWN.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW HAS MADE IT TO THE WESTERN TAF SITES
LATE THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
ACCOMPANYING THE PRECIP ARE THICKENING AND LOWERING CIGS, WITH
MOST TERMINALS SET TO DROP INTO IFR TERRITORY WITHIN AN HOUR OR
TWO OF THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STEADY RAIN CONTINUES THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH RHI EXPECTED TO SEE PERIODS OF SNOW,
SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN. A BRIEF WINDOW FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS THEN POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SOUTH OF RHI AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT, GUSTING BETWEEN 25 AND 35
KNOTS BEFORE VEERING TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LLWS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 50 TO 55 KNOTS AT 2K FT, DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-
019-021.
DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......GOODIN
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