084
FXUS63 KGRB 182115
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
315 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING, WITH
AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL WI BY EARLY THURSDAY. LOCALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
- PROBABILITIES FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL HAVE INCREASED OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WITH EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER CENTRAL, NORTH
CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WI, TAPERING DOWN TO LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATION IN THE FOX VALLEY, BAYSHORE AND LAKESHORE AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
AN OCCLUDED FRONT SITUATED ALONG HWY 29 WAS SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. TO THE NORTH, AREAS OF LOW
STRATUS AND FOG PERSISTED. LIGHT DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE
WAS ONGOING OVER FAR NORTHERN WI, WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE STILL
HOVERING AROUND 32-33 DEGREES. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE WAS WRAPPING
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BRINGING AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN, WHICH SHOULD CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW AS IT LIFTS INTO
THE COLDER AIR OVER NORTHERN WI.
THE SHORT-WAVE/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW AND LEAVING AROUND AND INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ISW-IMT. PRECIPITATION MAY BRUSH PARTS OF
EASTERN WI, BUT MOST OF THIS SHOULD DEPART BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.
THUS, LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE FOX VALLEY,
BAYSHORE AND LAKESHORE AREAS.
A SHORT LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS
TONIGHT'S SNOW LIFTS NORTH EARLY IN THE DAY AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES IN EAST CENTRAL WI LATE.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTHWEST, BUT SHOULD REACH
INTO THE 45 TO 50 RANGE IN PARTS OF CENTRAL WI AND THE FOX
VALLEY, WHERE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED.
A COLORADO LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH MOST OF THE IMPACTS
OCCURRING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON FRIDAY. MOST MODELS TRACK THE
LOW THROUGH SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL WI, AND PRODUCE THE BEST
DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FARTHER EAST, OVER THE FOX VALLEY, BAYSHORE AND
LAKESHORE AREAS, RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW DURING THE HEART OF THE
EVENT WILL SEVERELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT FULLY CAPTURING THE LATEST MODEL
TRENDS, AND LOOKS TOO LOW FOR 2+ AND 4+ INCH ACCUMULATIONS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME ROOM FOR THESE
AMOUNTS TO COME UP A BIT, GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A
WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT, AND PLAN TO LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT
MAKE A DECISION ON A POSSIBLE ADVISORY OR WARNING HEADLINE.
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, LEADING
TO POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT
ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS.
A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
AN OCCLUDED FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI,
RESULTING IN AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR OVER THE FAR SOUTH. JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUED,
WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG TO PERSIST OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE
OCCLUDED FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THAT FAR NORTH.
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WI (AND THE RHI TAF SITE)
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, THEN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE TO
SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. VSBYS WILL DROP INTO THE
IFR RANGE AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING, AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT GRB/ATW. THINK THAT THE MTW TAF
SITE WILL REMAIN DRY.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, WITH IFR CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE MORNING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
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