254
FXUS63 KGRB 192330
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
530 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN A BAND OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND
SLEET EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL INTO FAR NORTHEAST WI FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, INCLUDING
DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
- PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY
DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
LOW STRATUS COVERED THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WAS OBSERVED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM AROUND 30 FAR NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTHEAST. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
MO (DEVELOPING IN THE LFQ OF A 150 KT JET STREAK) WAS LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SWATH
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH FAR SE WI LATE
TONIGHT, THEN TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. STRONG DYNAMICS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF QPF OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTHWEST. WHERE THIS HEAVIER QPF
INTERACTS WITH COLDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS. HERE ARE THE
MAIN POINTS THAT IMPACT THIS FORECAST:
- MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SWATH OF SNOW AND
SLEET IMPACTING AREAS FROM CENTRAL WI INTO FAR NE WI LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA, AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED.
- HAVE BACKED OFF ON MODEL-GENERATED FREEZING RAIN AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS, AS THE WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT OVERLAYS SUB-
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS WEAK (+2 C OR LESS), WHICH IS
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SLEET. ANY FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL WOULD THEN
NEED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING (AND LOSS
OF ICE CRYSTALS IN THE SATURATED LAYER), BUT NO CLEAR-CUT DRY
SLOTTING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE HEADLINE AREA, SO HAVE
DISCOUNTED THIS POTENTIAL. HAVE FOCUSED MORE ON SLEET POTENTIAL
AND REMOVED MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE FREEZING RAIN FROM THE
FORECAST.
- ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION AS RAIN OVER THE FOX VALLEY,
BAYSHORE AND LAKESHORE AREAS, WITH A CHANGEOVER TO MIXED
RAIN/SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION IS TAPERING OFF FRIDAY MORNING.
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS.
PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER MAINLY THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY PART OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH MIXED RAIN/SNOW DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, DROP BACK TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN RISE ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
MVFR TO IFR STRATUS HAS LINGERED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON, LEAVING THE EAST-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SITES UNDER VFR CONDITIONS. MIXED PRECIP THEN ARRIVES
LATE THIS EVENING, CONTINUING AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WESTERN
TAF SITES WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH VSBY REDUCTIONS TO IFR
POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW. PRECIP INITIALLY STARTS AS RAIN
ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL SITES, EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SLEET LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOWERING
AND THICKENING CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PRECIP, LEAVING ALL THE
TERMINALS UNDER IFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS PRECIP DEPARTS TO THE NORTH.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, INCREASING AND
BACKING TO NORTHWESTERLY BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE GUSTS TO
30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR WIZ011>013-019>021-030-031-035>037-045.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......GOODIN
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