484
FXUS63 KGRB 201936
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
136 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL RETURNS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO FAR
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO DOOR COUNTY. AN ADDITIONAL THREE TO
FIVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY TO MID WEEK ALONG WITH
ANOTHER COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT MAY BRING SNOW THROUGH
THE AREA.
- ANOTHER WARMING TREND POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
SHORT TO MID-RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SITUATED ALONG
THE BORDER BETWEEN THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AND FAR
NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FAIRLY NARROW BUT
FOCUSED BAND OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL AFTER A LULL IN THE
ACTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO
EXCEED 2-3 INCHES (70%+ CHANCE) AND MAY GET AS HIGH AS 4 TO 5
INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON (30-40% CHANCE). THEREFORE DECIDED
TO EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR FLORENCE, MARINETTE, AND DOOR COUNTIES. THE NARROW NATURE OF
THE SNOWBAND WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
COUNTIES.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE LAKE
EFFECT BELT REGION. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR ON THE LIGHTER
END, WITH PROBABILITY OF AROUND AN INCH GENERALLY AROUND 50-60%. A
REALISTIC WORST CASE CONTINUES TO BE CLOSER TO 2-3 INCHES, BUT
THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS LOWER AND MAINLY LIMITED TO AREAS IN THE
FAR NORTHERN CORNER OF VILAS COUNTY.
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS AROUND THE END OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO GET INTO
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S NEXT WEEK. ACCOMPANYING THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE COUPLE ADDITIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS IN THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK
PERIOD, WHICH COULD AGAIN BRING THROUGH A ROUND OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, ALTHOUGH AGAIN THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
GREATEST IN THE NORTH FOR THE LAKE EFFECT REGIONS.
FINALLY, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE RIDGING OVER
EASTERN CONUS WILL SUFFICE TO BRING SOME WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH
INTO WISCONSIN.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
AVIATION FORECAST SHOWS A PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS (RELATIVE
TO THIS MORNING) FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SNOW TAPERS TO
AN END FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THIS SHOULD BRING VISIBILITY BACK UP
BUT CEILINGS MAY LINGER BETWEEN IFR/MVFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KNOTS AT TIMES BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH AGAIN
DURING THE LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
MAY IMPACT AREAS IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA
TONIGHT, BUT ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF
TERMINALS, SO NO SNOW IS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ012-013-
022-073.
DISCUSSION.....UHLMANN
AVIATION.......UHLMANN
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