836
FXUS63 KGRB 210414
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1014 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL RETURNS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO FAR
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO DOOR COUNTY. AN ADDITIONAL THREE TO
FIVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE EARLY TO MID WEEK ALONG WITH
ANOTHER COUPLE OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS THAT MAY BRING SNOW THROUGH
THE AREA.
- ANOTHER WARMING TREND POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
SHORT TO MID-RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO KEEP AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SITUATED ALONG
THE BORDER BETWEEN THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN AND FAR
NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FAIRLY NARROW BUT
FOCUSED BAND OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL AFTER A LULL IN THE
ACTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO
EXCEED 2-3 INCHES (70%+ CHANCE) AND MAY GET AS HIGH AS 4 TO 5
INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON (30-40% CHANCE). THEREFORE DECIDED
TO EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR FLORENCE, MARINETTE, AND DOOR COUNTIES. THE NARROW NATURE OF
THE SNOWBAND WILL LIKELY MAKE FOR A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED
COUNTIES.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COLDER AIR SATURDAY NIGHT COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE LAKE
EFFECT BELT REGION. OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS APPEAR ON THE LIGHTER
END, WITH PROBABILITY OF AROUND AN INCH GENERALLY AROUND 50-60%. A
REALISTIC WORST CASE CONTINUES TO BE CLOSER TO 2-3 INCHES, BUT
THIS POTENTIAL REMAINS LOWER AND MAINLY LIMITED TO AREAS IN THE
FAR NORTHERN CORNER OF VILAS COUNTY.
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS AROUND THE END OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO GET INTO
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S NEXT WEEK. ACCOMPANYING THE COLDER AIR WILL
BE COUPLE ADDITIONAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS IN THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK
PERIOD, WHICH COULD AGAIN BRING THROUGH A ROUND OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, ALTHOUGH AGAIN THE POTENTIAL WILL BE
GREATEST IN THE NORTH FOR THE LAKE EFFECT REGIONS.
FINALLY, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WHETHER THE RIDGING OVER
EASTERN CONUS WILL SUFFICE TO BRING SOME WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH
INTO WISCONSIN.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IFR CIGS AT RHI. CLOUDS
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME SCT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI
TAF SITES SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE MVFR CIGS RETURN LATE SATURDAY
MORNING/EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ANY SNOW WILL REMAIN OVER FAR NORTHEAST WI THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL NOT IMPACT TAF TERMINALS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
FOR LIGHT SNOW RETURNING TO SOME OF THE EAST-CENTRAL WI TAF SITES
TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 15-20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THIS
TAF PERIOD.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ012-013-
022-073.
DISCUSSION.....UHLMANN
AVIATION.......KRUK
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