500
FXUS63 KGRB 211608
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1008 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW OVER DOOR COUNTY AND FAR NORTHEAST WI WILL LEAD TO
SLIPPERY TRAVEL TODAY.
- LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES EXPAND TO THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, THOUGH FAR NORTHERN VILAS
LIKELY WILL SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW.
- COOLER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (COLDEST DAY MONDAY). LOOKING
ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SNOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING EASTERN MARINETTE INTO DOOR
COUNTY, BUT THIS AREA HAS CONTRACTED COMPARED TO EARLIER. THIS
SNOW IS BEING FORCED BY PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE
WEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW AND RAIN FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THIS GENERAL AREA TODAY, BUT THE
MOST ACCUMULATION OCCURS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
THE ADVISORY UNTIL NOON, BUT MAY NEED TO TREND THE WESTERN PART OF
IT SOONER THAN THAT.
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MORE OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST FLURRIES,
AND AT TIMES, MEASURABLE LIGHT SNOW. THIS IS DUE TO THE
CONVERGENCE AREA SINKING SOUTH AS THE SFC-850MB LOW SLIGHTLY
RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST. HIGHEST POPS (55-65%) WILL BE
OVER NORTHERN VILAS COUNTY AS NNW FLOW, INCREASING INVERSION TO
5KFT, AND MORE OPEN WATER ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR RESULT IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. SNOW WILL BE FLUFFY AND EFFICIENT AS ENTIRE LAKE
CLOUD LAYER IS WITHIN DGZ. PATTERN AND VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THAT SNOWBELTS OF FAR NORTHERN VILAS COUNTY COULD SEE A
FEW INCHES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. NBM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE IS NOT NEAR AS IMPRESSED (30-40% OF SEEING 1+"), WHICH IS
TYPICAL BIAS GIVEN SHALLOW LES IN THE DGZ WITH MINIMAL LIQUID
EQUIVALENT. MOST NOTABLE LES ACCUMS WILL BE FARTHER NORTH INTO
MICHIGAN WHERE SEVERAL INCHES COULD FALL. LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
LESS FAVORABLE FOR VILAS SUNDAY EVENING.
COLDER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND AS HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS ARRIVES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY MAINLY IN 20S.
HIGHS ON MONDAY TEENS NORTH, TO LOW-MID 20S ELSEWHERE. THESE
READINGS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS WE HAVE HAD FOR A WHILE, WITH SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS CENTRAL TO NORTH-CENTRAL. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT,
TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL COULD DROP BELOW ZERO.
EXTENDED LOOKS ACTIVE, BUT CONSENSUS IS LACKING. CLIPPER SYSTEM
BRINGS SNOW TO MUCH OF AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LREF
PROBABILITIES 60-80% OF AT LEAST 1" OF SNOW NORTH-CENTRAL TO
NORTHEAST WI. ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY PER EC/EC
ENSEMBLES, SHOWING UP FOR THURSDAY. SNOW AS MAIN PTYPE FOR THAT
ONE AS WELL. HINT FROM HIGHER END OF ENSEMBLES (NOT JUST EC
SOURCED) THAT AT LEAST A FEW INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR WITH THE
THURSDAY SYSTEM. OVERALL THOUGH NBM POPS REMAIN QUITE LOW AS THIS
TREND IS JUST BEGINNING TO SHOW UP. MAY TURN WARMER BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH 40S FOR FRIDAY, BUT THE WARMTH DOES NOT HOLD VERY
LONG.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1002 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
BKN-OVC MVFR STRATUS (015-025) WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY IN A
STAGNANT PATTERN. FLURRIES WITH VSBY AOA 6SM WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AT RHI, THEN EXPAND TO ALL THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 15-18KT AT TIMES, MAINLY AT MTW
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AT MORE SITES TONIGHT.
NO BIG CHANGE TO CIGS, WX OR VSBYS ON SUNDAY AS CLOUDS AND SOME
FLURRIES PERSIST. HOWEVER, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ022.
DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
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