084
FXUS63 KGRB 220505
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1105 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, THOUGH FAR NORTHERN VILAS
LIKELY WILL SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW.
- COOLER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (COLDEST DAY MONDAY). LOOKING
ACTIVE WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SNOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL BRING FLURRIES TO MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES PRODUCING
MEASURABLE SNOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGHEST POPS (55-65%) WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN VILAS COUNTY AS NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW, INCREASING
INVERSION TO 5K FT, AND MORE OPEN WATER ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SNOW WILL BE FLUFFY AND EFFICIENT AS
ENTIRE LAKE CLOUD LAYER IS WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ).
PATTERN AND VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT SNOWBELTS OF FAR
NORTHERN VILAS COUNTY COULD SEE A FEW INCHES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. NBM PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS NOT NEAR AS
IMPRESSED (20-30% OF SEEING 1+"), WHICH IS TYPICAL BIAS GIVEN
SHALLOW LES IN THE DGZ WITH MINIMAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT. MOST
NOTABLE LES ACCUMS WILL BE FARTHER NORTH INTO MICHIGAN WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES COULD FALL. LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE
FOR VILAS COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT. DOOR COUNTY COULD ALSO SEE AROUND
AN INCH OR SO OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD WITH LES
BANDS FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR PUSHING SOUTH.
COLDER AIR PUSHES IN BEHIND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND AS HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS ARRIVES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN
20S. BY MONDAY, HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH,
WITH LOW-MID 20S ELSEWHERE. THESE READINGS WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY AS WE HAVE
HAD FOR A WHILE, WITH SINGLE DIGIT LOWS CENTRAL TO NORTH-
CENTRAL. IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT, TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL COULD DROP BELOW ZERO.
EXTENDED LOOKS ACTIVE, BUT CONSENSUS IS LACKING. CLIPPER SYSTEM
BRINGS SNOW TO MUCH OF AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LREF
PROBABILITIES ARE 60-80% OF AT LEAST 1" OF SNOW ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM,
ESPECIALLY PER EC/EC ENSEMBLES, TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR
THAT SYSTEM AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE OTHER NWP MODELS HAVE THIS
SYSTEM MISSING THE REGION, NBM PROBABILITIES ARE 35 TO 45% OF AT
LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE, THERE APPEARS
TO BE A SIGNAL FROM THE OTHER ENSEMBLES ON THIS SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE REGION. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WARMER AIR ALLOWS HIGHS TO SOAR
BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AND NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN 2500 TO 3500 FT AGL THROUGH AROUND 09Z
SUN BEFORE RETURNING SOLELY TO MVFR WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 1500
TO 3000 FT AGL THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
VFR SUNDAY EVENING. FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL.
REDUCED VSBYS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES WITHIN THE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT
ONLY INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS OF IFR VSBYS AT GRB AND MTW SUNDAY
MORNING, WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 15-18 KTS TONIGHT, EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......KRUK
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