174
FXUS63 KGRB 220850
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
250 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- BLUSTERY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH, EXCEPT OVER NORTHERN VILAS
COUNTY WHERE A FEW INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW IS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 60-70% CHANCE OF 2+ INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. MORE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND AGAIN
BY THIS WEEKEND.
- STAYING COLDER THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. WARMEST DAY
THIS WEEK WILL BE FRIDAY (>75% CHANCE OF HIGHS 40+ DEGREES), BUT
TURNING COLDER AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
BLUSTERY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TODAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN EXTENDS A TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE IS ALSO A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AS SEEN IN MID-LEVEL WV LOOP. THOUGH THE FORCING WITH
THESE FEATURES IS HARDLY ROBUST, IT IS INTERACTING ON WIDESPREAD
MOISTURE IN THE DGZ. NET RESULT IS LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. WEAKER
FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE LEADS TO LESS THAN 1" OF SNOW FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, THOUGH LAKE EFFECT ADDED TO THE SETUP WILL BOOST SNOWFALL
TO A FEW INCHES IN NORTHERN VILAS. ONCE WAVE DROPS THOUGH, SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND IT WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH COVERAGE OF SNOW FOR ESPECIALLY
CENTRAL TO FAR NORTHEAST WI. LINGERING LAKE EFFECT THIS EVENING,
BUT OTHERWISE SNOW SHOULD END. IT STILL LOOKS BLUSTERY TODAY, WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON.
MORE SNOW ON THE WAY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NBM POPS CONTINUE TREND UPWARD (60-80%) AS CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES BRINGS SNOW LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AGREEMENT IS HIGH THAT GREATEST CHANCES FOR
SNOW OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN WHERE BULK OF HEAVIER ISENTROPIC ASCENT
SNOW OCCURS THROUGH 18Z TUE, BUT EVEN WITH THIS NBM PROBABILITIES
ARE NOW SHOWING 60-70% CHANCE OF 2+ INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 BY
TIME SNOW ENDS TUESDAY EVENING, WITH EVEN A 40-50% OF SEEING 4+
INCHES NEAR THE UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. SEEMS THERE IS AT LEAST A
SMALL CHANCE THIS EVENT COULD NEED A WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE.
MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND...
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW TO WESTERN
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TREND FROM THIS SYSTEM
IS FARTHER SOUTH, WITH SOUTHERN AREAS WELL TO SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29
SEEING 30-40% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1" OF SNOW. ECMWF ENSEMBLE
BRINGS THAT CHANCE FARTHER NORTH THOUGH. YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SNOW COULD OCCUR TO START THE WEEKEND THOUGH CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW
AT THIS POINT (<10% OF 1+ INCHES).
TEMPERATURES...
OVERALL WE'LL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 20S TODAY AND MONDAY, ALONG WITH CHILLY LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW SPOTS
NORTH-CENTRAL MAY SLIP BELOW ZERO TONIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT.
HIGHS WILL BE AVERAGE TO A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY.
CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF BRIEF WARMING ON FRIDAY AS WI WILL BE WITHIN
WARMER AIR SOUTH OF CYCLONE CROSSING CENTRAL CANADA. PROBABILITIES
OF SEEING HIGHS 40+ DEGREES ON FRIDAY REMAIN HIGH AT 75-95%. IT
DOESN'T LAST, AS TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND TURN COOL AGAIN, WITH
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWING HIGHS FOR THE FIRST DAY OF MARCH (NEXT
SUNDAY) IN THE 20S.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN 2500 TO 3500 FT AGL THROUGH AROUND 09Z
SUN BEFORE RETURNING SOLELY TO MVFR WITH CLOUD BASES BETWEEN 1500
TO 3000 FT AGL THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIFT TO
VFR SUNDAY EVENING. FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL.
REDUCED VSBYS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES WITHIN THE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT
ONLY INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS OF IFR VSBYS AT GRB AND MTW SUNDAY
MORNING, WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST.
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 15-18 KTS TONIGHT, EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....JLA
AVIATION.......KRUK
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