210
FXUS63 KGRB 230506
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1106 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- BLUSTERY WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH, EXCEPT OVER
NORTHERN VILAS COUNTY WHERE AROUND AN INCH OF FLUFFY SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW IS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 50-80% CHANCE OF 2+ INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29.
- AN ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. 30-40% CHANCE FOR AN 1+ INCH SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29.
- STAYING COLDER THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. WARMEST
DAY THIS WEEK WILL BE FRIDAY (>75% CHANCE OF HIGHS 40+ DEGREES),
BUT TURNING COLDER AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY END MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE A CONTINUED FEED OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL PROVIDE LAKE EFFECT LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE WINDS TO
EASE AS THE DAY GOES ON.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM THEN TAKES AIM FOR THE AREA, BRINGING SNOW TO THE
REGION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE (70-90%)
FOR SNOW DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, AND WINDING DOWN TUESDAY
EVENING. CURRENT 24 HOUR NBM PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW ARE SITTING AT
50 TO 80% FOR 2 OR MORE INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 WITH
PROBABILITIES QUICKLY FALLING OFF SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 10 TO 10 TO
20%. THE PROBABILITY OF HITTING 4 OR MORE INCHES IS HOLDING STEADY
AT 40 TO 50% NORTH OF HIGHWAY 8 ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND
AN INTERESTING UPTICK OF 50-70% ACROSS NORTHERN DOOR COUNTY. IF
CURRENT TRENDS HOLD, A HEADLINE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA WOULD BE IN ORDER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM (20-40% CHANCE) TO
IMPACT THE REGION IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THIS
SYSTEM PLAYS OUT AS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THIS SYSTEM STAYS TO
THE SOUTH AND AVOIDS THE AREA ENTIRELY. NBM PROBABILITIES WITH
THIS SYSTEM ARE GENERALLY 30 TO 40% FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29, WITH 10 TO 30% NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THEN LOW FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND (20% OR LESS).
TEMPERATURE-WISE WE WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF AVERAGE FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S MONDAY,
ALONG WITH CHILLY LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW SPOTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MAY SLIP BELOW
ZERO TONIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR OUT. HIGHS WILL BE AVERAGE TO A BIT
BELOW AVERAGE FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY, WITH A WARM-UP EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AS HIGHS SOAR INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S. TEMPERATURES THEN CRASH BACK INTO THE 20S FOR HIGHS
LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
LOW-END VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHILE MVFR CIGS WILL OCCASIONALLY
MOVE OVER THE RHI TAF SITE DUE TO LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS/FLURRIES.
FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL WI TAF
SITES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, SKIES WILL PARTIALLY
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT, BECOMING SCT/FEW THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST TOWARDS THE END OF
THIS TAF PERIOD.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 15-25 KTS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING, EASING THROUGHOUT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......KRUK
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