111
FXUS63 KGRB 081756
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1256 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN
ICE BREAK-UP ON RIVERS AND LOCALIZED ICE JAM AND RIVER FLOODING
INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. ICE FLOES WILL BE A CONCERN ON GREEN BAY
TODAY.
- WARM AND BREEZY TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S
IN SOME AREAS.
- WINDY WITH A MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY. SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. TRAVEL CONCERNS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- WINDY WITH RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 AM CST SUN MAR 8 2026
LOW CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY ERODING AND LIFTING NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING, AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHED THE REGION. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE GRADUALLY INCREASING.
A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS BY WELL TO THE NORTH THIS
MORNING, BUT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAKENING FRONT WILL BRING A
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN WI.
PARTIAL SUNSHINE, GOOD MIXING AND SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO
35 MPH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS BRUSHES THROUGH NORTHERN WI THIS
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. A SECOND CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY, AND DRAGS A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN KS TUESDAY MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY
EVENING, THEN TO FAR SOUTHEAST ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THIS TRACK KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS SHOW A 30 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF 2+ INCHES OF SNOW (HIGHEST NORTH), ALONG WITH POTENTIAL
FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY GENERATE STRONG NE WINDS IN THE FOX VALLEY/
LAKESHORE AREAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NNW
WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR GALE
FORCE GUSTS ON LAKE MICHIGAN ARE 50 TO 70 PERCENT DURING THIS
PERIOD. ALL OF THIS LEADS TO GROWING POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AND GALE WARNING HEADLINES DOWN THE ROAD.
A STRONG CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NORTHERN WI
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
WINDS, POTENTIAL GALES ON LAKE MICHIGAN (50-70%) AND ACCUMULATING
SNOW (30-70% CHANCE OF 2+ INCHES, HIGHEST IN NORTHERN WI).
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES LATER IN THE WEEKEND, BUT
DETAILS ARE SKETCHY AT THIS POINT.
ICE JAM/ICE FLOE POTENTIAL...RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAIN AND
CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF ICE
BREAK-UP INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS COULD RESULT IN SUSCEPTIBLE
RIVERS RISING TO BANKFULL OR OVEN MINOR FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AN INCREASED THREAT OF ICE FLOES ON GREEN BAY IS ALSO
EXPECTED TODAY.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, AS MAINLY
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
MAY ACCOMPANY THE MID-CLOUD DECK, BUT NO AVIATION IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
WEST/SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25 KTS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON
EVENING WITH MOST GUSTS STAYING UNDER 20 KTS TONIGHT. STRONG LLWS
IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE WIND DECREASE AND WINDS ALOFT
RAMP UP TO 50-60 KTS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FT. LLWS WILL END AROUND
SUNRISE MONDAY AS WINDS ALOFT DIMINISH.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......BERSCH
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