016
FXUS63 KGRB 100810
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
310 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS TRAVEL POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
ACCUMULATING SNOW ARRIVES ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST- CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT (40-50% CHANCE OF
A LIGHT GLAZE).
- SECOND WINTRY SYSTEM WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING SNOW AGAIN TO THE NORTHWOODS AND A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
- A THIRD ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER WEEK LIES AHEAD FOR THE REGION AS FAST
MOVING AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BRINGS SEVERAL FAST MOVING
SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION. AS A RESULT, SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN/SNOW LIE IN STORE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND THE FAR NORTH
EARLY THIS MORNING, AHEAD OF THE "TRUE" FIRST WINTRY SYSTEM.
TRANSIENT FGEN ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN SOME BRIEF LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL NEAR THE UPPER
PENINSULA BORDER. IMPACTS WITH THIS INITIAL WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL.
THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES FROM A SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS EXPECT FROM THE EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW NOW STANDS AROUND 60-80%
FOR AREAS BETWEEN RHINELANDER AND IRON MOUNTAIN, SO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE REGION. FURTHER SOUTH, THE
LINGERING LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION AS COLDER AIR RETURNS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FREEZING DRIZZLE
APPEARS LIKELY, WITH PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE BRINGING POTENTIAL UP
TO 80% CHANCE FOR A LIGHT GLAZE FOR AREAS BETWEEN WAUSAU/STEVENS
POINT TO GREEN BAY. HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION
THE RECORD WARMTH FROM MONDAY AND HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY, WHICH
COULD KEEP ROAD SURFACES WARM ENOUGH TO MITIGATE GREATER IMPACTS.
STILL, GIVEN THE COLDER SIGNAL IN THE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE AND THE
TENDENCY FOR RAISED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES TO COOL FASTER,
WOULD WATCH FOR SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
FOR COMMUTERS ALONG HIGHWAY 29. ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING AS
THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SWITCHES TO SNOW. ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FOLLOW
BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL LOOK RELATIVELY SIMILAR, WITH A LATE DAY
ARRIVAL THURSDAY EVENING, CROSSING THE REGION OVERNIGHT, AND A
QUICK EXIT BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PUSH OF WARMER AIR, BUT THIS TIME THE SIGNAL
FOR A WARMER LAYER ALOFT IS ABSENT, SO PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE
MUCH MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN RAIN/SNOW. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IMPACTFUL SNOW HOWEVER, WITH AROUND
50-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING SIX INCHES IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
CYCLE. THE DETAILS ON THE WHERE AND WHEN HOWEVER REMAIN MORE
VARIABLE AS THE RAIN/SNOW LINE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
FINALLY, ALL EYES TURN TO THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WHICH MAY END UP
BEING THE HIGHEST IMPACT SYSTEM OF THE THREE IN THE FORECAST.
WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE BOTH POINT
TOWARDS A HIGH IMPACT SYSTEM, WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO EXCEED 6 AND
POSSIBLY EVEN 10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL (~20% IN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA). THAT SAID, KEEP IN MIND THAT THE UPPER WAVE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE THIS SYSTEM IS JUST MAKING LANDFALL IN ALASKA TODAY,
SO THE TRACK AND THEREFORE THE WHO GETS WHAT STILL REMAINS HIGHLY
VARIABLE. STILL, GIVEN THE HIGH END POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM,
ITS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LIGHTER PRECIP STARTS TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY MORNING, BUT THE MAIN RAIN/SNOW DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
TUESDAY EVENING. SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW, OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WILL BE ON AND OFF IN CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN WI FROM LATE TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS
WELL, WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING IN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ARRIVE TUESDAY EVENING,
WITH SNOW PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHERN WI. AN AREA OF FREEZING RAIN
IS ALSO EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST OR EAST-CENTRAL WI,
BUT EXACTLY WHERE THIS SETS UP IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS EARLY TONIGHT BECOME NE WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE NE ON TUESDAY
WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SOME LLWS DEVELOPS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-010>013-018-019.
DISCUSSION.....UHLMANN
AVIATION.......KLJ
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