072
FXUS63 KGRB 101940
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
240 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATING HAZARDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY, INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN, LIGHT ICING, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-90%) CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, ALONG WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS.
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL EXISTS OVER THE WEEKEND
(60-80% PROBABILITY), WHICH MAY IMPACT WEEKEND TRAVEL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REINFORCING COOLER AIR ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
NOTABLE CHANGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING EXPANSION OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA AND THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN, WHERE
CHANCES OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE INCREASED (50-60%).
SNOW RATES WILL EXCEED 0.5 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES IN THIS AREA.
FARTHER SOUTH, A WINTRY MIX WILL BE FAVORED, TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN ICING IMPACTS ARE LOWER, ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH,
GIVEN MARGINAL ROAD TEMPS. UNTREATED, ELEVATED SURFACES LIKELY
WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.
IN ADDITION, MODEST ELEVATED CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR MAY PROMOTE
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS, STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY:
RECENT TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLE NWP SUITE HAVE FAVORED A STRONGER
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE. STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING/LIFT WITH THIS WAVE WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. RIGHT NOW, THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE FAVORED OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN (50-90% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 4" VIA THE
NBM), BUT TRENDS IN TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL PLAY A ROLE IN SNOW
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY WITH A STRONGER LOW, WITH 40 TO 80% PROBABILITIES OF
WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35 MPH, AND SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, SUCH AS THE EPS INDICATING HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF 40
TO 45 MPH GUSTS.
WEEKEND:
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE WAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO ONE MORE POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REGION. THERE
ARE STILL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AND
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH, IMPACTING SNOW AMOUNTS AND EVEN
PRECIPITATION TYPES. FAIRLY ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR IN
ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE, WITH MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING THE 80TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMO FROM GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES. WHILE THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT A BROAD SWATH OF
THE CENTRAL US, DETAILS WILL BE REFINED IN COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT, TRENDING MVFR/IFR, WITH TIME. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN, WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EVEN
A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH THIS EVENING TRANSITIONING TO
A WINTRY MIX TONIGHT AND THEN TO SNOW FARTHER ON WEDNESDAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ013-
018-019-021-022-073.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ020-030-031-035>038-045-048-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
WIZ039-040-049-050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ541>543.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JM
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