742
FXUS63 KGRB 110412
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1112 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATING HAZARDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY, INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN, LIGHT ICING, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-90%) CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, ALONG WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS.
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL EXISTS OVER THE WEEKEND
(60-80% PROBABILITY), WHICH MAY IMPACT WEEKEND TRAVEL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY:
A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTY
NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REINFORCING COOLER AIR ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
NOTABLE CHANGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING EXPANSION OF A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE AREA AND THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER STORM WARNING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN, WHERE
CHANCES OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW HAVE INCREASED (50-60%).
SNOW RATES WILL EXCEED 0.5 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES IN THIS AREA.
FARTHER SOUTH, A WINTRY MIX WILL BE FAVORED, TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN ICING IMPACTS ARE LOWER, ESPECIALLY FARTHER SOUTH,
GIVEN MARGINAL ROAD TEMPS. UNTREATED, ELEVATED SURFACES LIKELY
WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE.
IN ADDITION, MODEST ELEVATED CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR MAY PROMOTE
SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
GIVEN THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS, STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY:
RECENT TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLE NWP SUITE HAVE FAVORED A STRONGER
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE. STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING/LIFT WITH THIS WAVE WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. RIGHT NOW, THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE FAVORED OVER
NORTHERN WISCONSIN (50-90% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 4" VIA THE
NBM), BUT TRENDS IN TRACK AND INTENSITY WILL PLAY A ROLE IN SNOW
AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN ADDITION, GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY WITH A STRONGER LOW, WITH 40 TO 80% PROBABILITIES OF
WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35 MPH, AND SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE, SUCH AS THE EPS INDICATING HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF 40
TO 45 MPH GUSTS.
WEEKEND:
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE WAVE WILL CROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO ONE MORE POTENTIAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT AND STRONG WINDS OVER THE REGION. THERE
ARE STILL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AND
PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH, IMPACTING SNOW AMOUNTS AND EVEN
PRECIPITATION TYPES. FAIRLY ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR IN
ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE, WITH MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING THE 80TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMO FROM GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES. WHILE THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT A BROAD SWATH OF
THE CENTRAL US, DETAILS WILL BE REFINED IN COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE LATE THIS EVENING,
DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR. A BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS
NORTH OF RHI. AS THE INITIAL BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS PUSHES NORTH, A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER PRECIP, INCLUDING SOME DRIZZLE AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE, ALONG WITH A LULLS IN THE PRECIP FOR SOME, IS EXPECTED
LATE THIS EVENING. THE PRECIP WILL FILL BACK IN AND THE RAIN AND
WINTRY MIX WILL SLOWLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI, WITH A GLAZING OF ICE EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WI. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
BAY AND LAKE MICHIGAN, WHERE GUST TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ005-010>012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ013-
018>022-030-031-035>039-045-048-049-073-074.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ040-050.
DISCUSSION.....JM
AVIATION.......BERSCH
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