552
FXUS63 KGRB 111738
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1238 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS TRAVEL EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FROM SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWOODS. LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME SLIPPERY STRETCHES.
- MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-90%) CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, ALONG WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS.
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL EXISTS OVER THE WEEKEND
(60-80% PROBABILITY), WHICH MAY IMPACT WEEKEND TRAVEL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
TODAY...
A LULL IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR THE EARLY
TO MID MORNING PERIOD AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION SUBSIDES. STILL, SOME DRIZZLE WILL FILL AT TIMES AS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PLENTY OF SATURATION THROUGH THE LOWEST LEVELS,
WHICH REMAINS IN LINE WITH RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. FREEZING
DRIZZLE DOES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD AS RESULT WITH
PROBABILITY OF A GLAZE STILL STAYING AROUND 50-70%, BUT THE
OVERALL IMPACTS MAY BE LIMITED AS ROAD TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THEY HAVE REMAINED JUST ABOVE FREEZING. STILL, WILL KEEP
HEADLINES FOR THE MORNING PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES MAY STILL DROP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES AND ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES, TREES,
AND POSSIBLY SOME SIDEWALKS MAY STILL BE VULNERABLE TO ICING. SNOW
WILL RETURN FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH ROLLS THROUGH THE REGION WHICH WILL BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW TO MANY AREAS. THE HIGHEST IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN, WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES SEEMS
LIKELY BEFORE SNOW DEPARTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SECOND ROUND MAY
AGAIN BRING A VERY BRIEF FREEZING PRECIPITATION THREAT IN THE MID
TO LATE MORNING, BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A
CHANGEOVER TO PREDOMINANTLY SNOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE NEXT WINTRY SYSTEM THAT LIES IN STORE
FOR THE REGION. A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND AMPLIFIED SURFACE
WAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
STARTING THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, WITH
PRECIPITATION EXITING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOST INTENSE
SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
OVERNIGHT IN THE HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT AND COULD SEE SNOWFALL
RATES BRIEFLY APPROACH AN INCH AN HOUR FOR A COUPLE HOURS.
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TOTALS OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES IS
GROWING, WITH PROBABILISTIC SHOWING AROUND 40-60% FOR AREAS NORTH
OF A LINE FROM MERRILL AND MARINETTE. FURTHER SOUTH, A RELATIVELY
WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUGGESTS A WETTER SNOW WITH A LOWER SLR
AND ALSO THAT RAIN WILL MID IN AT TIMES ONCE YOU GET INTO PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THUS A SHARP GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS AND RELATIVELY LOW ONES SEEMS
LIKELY, WHICH WILL ALSO MAKE THIS SYSTEM SENSITIVE TO ANY
NORTH/SOUTH SHIFTS IN THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE
THE FORECAST WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES RETAINING AROUND 50% TO
70% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 35 MPH WIND GUSTS AT TIMES. ALL TOGETHER,
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ARE BECOMING LIKELY (50-80% VIA WSO),
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE THE SNOW CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER.
WEEKEND SYSTEM...
A THIRD ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER TO AREAS AROUND
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH HIGHER SNOWFALL DRIVEN BY HIGH PWATS, AMPLE
UPPER FORCING, AND GUSTY WINDS. WHAT IS NOT IN AGREEMENT REMAINS
THE DETAILS OF THE STORM TRACK (I.E. THE WHO GETS WHAT) DRIVEN
MAINLY BE DISAGREEMENTS IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE AND OVERALL
STORM TRACK OF THE RESULTING LOW. ADDITIONAL DETAILS WILL BE
REFINED OVER THE COMING DAYS AS WE GET BETTER SAMPLING ON THE
UPSTREAM SYSTEM, BUT DO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST IF YOU PLAN ON
TRAVELING IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
MAINLY MVFR/IFR FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE BACK END OF THE SNOW MOVES ACROSS, KEEPING CIGS
AND VSBYS LOWER.
CLEARING IS NOTED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST WI, WHICH WILL TRACK INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING
A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.
N/NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN SUBSIDE TO
5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ005-
010>012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ013-
018-019-021-022-073.
DISCUSSION.....UHLMANN
AVIATION.......KLJ
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