819
FXUS63 KGRB 142016
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
316 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- A HISTORIC WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. HEAVY SNOW, MIXED PRECIP, AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA, INCLUDING EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TRAVEL
AND POWER OUTAGES. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 15 TO 30 INCHES WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND BLIZZARD
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
- SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
0.1 TO 0.2" OF ICE ACCUMULATION ON SUNDAY. PRECIP THEN
TRANSITIONS BACK TO ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT.
- BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, MODERATING
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW (60-80%) IS ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
HISTORIC SNOWSTORM ARRIVES THIS EVENING, AND WILL BE THE LARGEST
SINCE APRIL 13-15, 2018, AND THEN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FAR NORTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE 30S.
LATEST MODEL RUNS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED THE SNOW WAS A
LITTLE SLOWER TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING, THUS PUSHED BACK THE START
TIME OF THE WARNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY AN HOUR OR TWO. ACROSS THE NORTH, PUSHED UP THE START
TIME BY A FEW HOURS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL WI IN RESPONSE TO AN FGEN BAND THAT SETS UP
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LATE TONIGHT, MODELS INDICATING A WARM LAYER
BETWEEN FIVE AND NINE THOUSAND FEET. THIS WARM LAYER WOULD SUPPORT
SLEET UP TO GREEN BAY AND POSSIBLY WAUSAU. THE WARM LAYER IS WARM
ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN, SLEET OR
FREEZING FROM WAUTOMA TO OSHKOSH TO MANITOWOC LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A TENTH OR TWO OF ICE FROM
WAUSHARA COUNTY EAST TO MANITOWOC COUNTY.
FOR LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH, SNOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY. INCREASING
WINDS AND HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL LEAD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. HAVE
ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 15Z SUNDAY TO 20Z MONDAY. FOR THE
FOX VALLEY, THE BLIZZARD WARNING WILL START AT 21Z SUN UNTIL THE
RISK OF THE MIX PRECIP ENDS AND AT 00Z FOR MANITOWOC AND KEWAUNEE
COUNTIES. THE LOW SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT, RESULTING IN STRONG WIND AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. GUSTS OF
40 TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY RESULTING IN DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER
LINES WHICH RESULTS IN EXPECTED POWER OUTAGES. ANOTHER CONCERN
WILL BE FOR MUCH COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE SNOW TO BECOME POWDERY AND MORE EASILY
BLOWN AROUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI. SNOWFALL TOTALS
MAY RIVAL AND MAY BE HIGHER THAN THE APRIL 2018 STORM. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS 13 TO 32 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH THE LOWEST TOTALS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY. HIGHEST TOTALS WERE ACROSS
MARINETTE AND OCONTO COUNTIES. NBM PROBABILITIES WERE A STAGGERING
70-90 FOR TWO FEET OF SNOW.
DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE BLIZZARD WARNING THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY
UNTIL THE STRONGER WINDS SUBSIDE DESPITE THE HEAVIER SNOW
ENDING. PREVIOUS EVENTS WITH THE POWDERY SNOW HAS RESULTED IN
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND PROBLEMS ON ROADS DUE TO ACCIDENTS
OR SLIDE OFFS. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN POOR INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE SPRING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THAT WILL IMPACT PRIVATE/COMMERCIAL
AVIATION. HEAVY SNOW OR BLOWING SNOW WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL END MONDAY MORNING,
THE POWDERY TYPE SNOW AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS WILL CREATE
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR WIZ005-010>013-021-022-073.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ005-
010>013-018>022-030-031-035>037-045-073-074.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR WIZ018>020-030-031-035>037-045-074.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY
FOR WIZ038-039-048-049.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ038-
039-048-049.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY
FOR WIZ040-050.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR WIZ040-
050.
DISCUSSION.....ECKBERG
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
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