022
FXUS63 KGRB 220600
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
100 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOWMELT WILL CAUSE INCREASED FLOWS AND RISING LEVELS ON RIVERS
AND STREAMS. SEVERAL RIVERS MAY REACH BANKFULL OR EVEN MINOR
FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY, THEN RISE TO ABOVE
NORMAL AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OCCURRING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN
WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF POST-
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY BE RAIN; HOWEVER, SNOW COULD MIX IN OR
CHANGEOVER COMPLETELY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE BRIEF
PERIOD THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SHOULD KEEP THE
IMPACTS FROM ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO A MINIMUM. THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT SOME BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SMALL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
WISCONSIN FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH PERHAPS
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MID-WEEK, WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING, THOUGH MVFR STRATUS HAS BEGUN ENCROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
A COLD FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTH OVERNIGHT, BRINGING WITH IT MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND A MIX OF SLEET AND RAIN.
RAIN/SLEET SHOULD MAKE IT RHI BY AROUND 06Z, SPREADING SOUTH TO
THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI SITES BY 08 TO 10Z. PRECIP THEN
EXITS BY MID- MORNING SUNDAY, GIVING WAY TO VFR CIGS AT MOST
TERMINALS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MVFR STRATUS WILL
LINGER IN/AROUND RHI THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON, GUSTING
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS AT MOST SITES, HIGHEST ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL. WINDS SUBSIDE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING SUNDAY
EVENING. LLWS CONCERNS WILL PERSIST DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS AN 850 MB JET EXITS TO THE EAST.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES, THE SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE TO MELT
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING FLOWS AND
RISING RIVER LEVELS. MODELED SNOWPACK TEMPERATURE FROM THE NOHRSC
SITE POINTS TO WIDESPREAD RIPENING OF THE SNOWPACK, AND HIGHER
SUSCEPTIBILITY OF MELTING. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF A PROLONGED
SIGNIFICANT WARMUP (AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING MOST NIGHTS) POINTS TO A MORE GRADUAL RISE IN AREA RIVERS
AS OPPOSED TO WIDESPREAD RAPID RISE FLOODING. SOME RIVERS WILL
LIKELY REACH BANKFULL OR EVEN MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.
THE FLOODING SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY GIVEN HOW MUCH
WATER IS LOCKED UP IN THE CURRENT SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION.
FORTUNATELY, NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT WEEK, SO NEARLY ALL OF THE RUNOFF WILL BE
ATTRIBUTED TO MELTING SNOW.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......GOODIN
HYDROLOGY......KURIMSKI
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