232
FXUS63 KGRB 060456
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1156 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY MAY
CAUSE BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS/MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS.
- NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20 TO 50% CHANCES FOR AT LEAST
1/2 INCH OF RAIN.
- THERE IS MEDIUM POTENTIAL (40 TO 60%) FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
- MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG SOME RIVERS THIS WEEK DUE
TO RECENT RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
WEEK MAY EXACERBATE FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. AS THIS
WAVE QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT, SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS (30 TO 60% CHANCE) WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
DEPENDENT ON LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES. AMOUNTS WILL
BE QUITE LIGHT WITH LESS THAN 20% CHANCES FOR 0.1 INCHES OF LIQUID
PRECIPITATION.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A RELATIVELY DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES/STEEP LAPSE RATES WOULD
FAVOR PREDOMINANTLY SNOW AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE. WITH WEAK
DESTABILIZATION POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY, THE SNOW SHOWERS MAY
BECOME BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO UNDER A MILE. SHORT-
LIVED TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY OCCUR WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON, INCLUDING DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE ACROSS
THE FOX VALLEY.
IN ADDITION, COLDER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE TEENS TO LOW 20S FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT ON THE HORIZON OVER THE NEXT WEEK. ANY WATER ON
ROADS/SIDEWALKS MAY FREEZE BEFORE TEMPS CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING ON
TUESDAY.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: WIDESPREAD RAIN, STARTING AS SNOW/MIX.
THERE WILL BE A VERY SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER ON TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE IMPACTS THE AREA. HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION
LIKELY (60-90% CHANCES) TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
FIRST ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINTER IMPACTS LOOK MINOR AT
THIS TIME. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS SNOW (OR A MIX) TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR 2 INCHES OR GREATER OF SNOW ARE LOW
RIGHT NOW (LESS THAN 25%) ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AFTER, RAIN
BECOMES THE FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE. THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 1/2 INCH OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION
ARE 20 TO 50% WITH EVEN LOWER CHANCES FOR EXCEEDING AN INCH.
OVERALL TRENDS SUPPORT THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. HOWEVER, LOW (20 TO 40%) PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FLOW EVOLUTION AND BOUNDARY PLACEMENT.
LATE WEEK: UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
LOOKING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND, THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE SUITE FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITH
BUILDING 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY. MEAN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE/CANADIAN
ENSEMBLES REACH THE 99TH PERCENTILE BY THIS TIME. THUS, MILD
AND WET CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTED, BUT CONFIDENCE IN MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS TIME RANGE. CPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THE AREA IN A MODERATE RISK FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION (40 TO 60%)
FOR NEXT SUNDAY/MONDAY. GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS AND
ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS, THIS WILL BE A PERIOD TO WATCH.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
MVFR CIGS IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI WERE OBSERVED AT 05Z, ALONG WITH
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. REMAINING PRECIP SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, WITH DRY WEATHER FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT.
ON MONDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ROBUST SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
WHILE THESE WILL BE SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED, THE
OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWER, SOME MAY BECOME BRIEFLY
HEAVY WITH DIPS TO IFR OR POSSIBLY LIFR VSBYS. HAVING INCLUDED
TEMPO GROUPS IN ALL TAFS FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WINDOWS.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SNOW SHOWERS, VFR OR HIGH-END MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NW THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KTS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
MANY AREA RIVERS REMAIN AT/NEAR BANKFULL OR IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE DUE
TO RUNOFF FROM RECENT ROUNDS OF RAINFALL AND MELTING SNOW/SLEET.
ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT FORECAST
THROUGH TUESDAY, AN OVERALL WETTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR MID-WEEK AND POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER IMPACTFUL RAIN EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHANCES FOR 1 INCH OF RAIN OR MORE ARE LOW (LESS THAN 20%) ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. GIVEN THE SATURATED
CONDITIONS, ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL EXACERBATE ALREADY HIGH WATER
LEVELS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....JM
AVIATION.......KLJ
HYDROLOGY......JM/KRUK
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