118
FXUS63 KGRB 071127
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
627 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY BRING SLIPPERY ROADS TO PARTS OF
CENTRAL, NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODERATE RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- STRONG SOUTH WINDS ON LAKE MICHIGAN PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A
GALE WATCH WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- PROBABILITIES FOR > 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK
ARE 80-90%. PROBABILITIES FOR > 2 INCHES ARE 20-40%. MEAN
RAINFALL FOR THE WEEK IS ROUGHLY 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. MINOR FLOODING
CONTINUES ALONG A FEW RIVERS THIS WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING LATER NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BROUGHT CLEAR SKIES TO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE COLD OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI, WHERE
READINGS DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES
WERE IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S.
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S, EXCEPT LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN COMMENCES LATE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
AND A 50-55 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET TAKES AIM ON THE REGION. THE
RESULTING WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGS A LIGHT MIX, STARTING AS
SNOW, THEN CHANGING TO SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN AS WARMER AIR
ARRIVES ALOFT THEN AT THE SURFACE. HAVE PUT MORE FOCUS ON SLEET IN
THIS FORECAST, AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE ARRIVAL TIME
OF THE STRONGER WARM LAYER ALOFT. THINK MOST AREAS WILL SEE A
DUSTING TO A HALF INCH OF COMBINED SNOW/SLEET, WITH A LIGHT GLAZE
OF ICE OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL, NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST
WI. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE. SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL
RAIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION
EXITS NORTHEAST WI. A SECOND ROUND OF MODERATE RAINFALL ARRIVES
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON IN NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WI, AND THE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WI.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ARRIVES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADING TO AN
INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE. THIS RAINFALL COULD PUSH TOTALS FOR THE
WEEK TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN MANY AREAS. PROBABILITIES FOR TOTAL
WEEKLY RAINFALL > 1 INCH ARE 80-90%. PROBABILITIES FOR > 2 INCHES
ARE 20-40%.
AVIATION
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. WAA ON THE NOSE OF A 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL GENERATE A LIGHT MIX OF SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN OR
RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LLWS OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATE TONIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE OCONTO AND WOLF ROVERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE OCONTO RIVER IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE
LATER TONIGHT, WHILE THE WOLF RIVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. SATURATED CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND POTENTIALLY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LATER THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, COULD RESULT IN RENEWED POTENTIAL
FOR AREAL FLOODING.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH
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