817
FXUS63 KGRB 260404
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1104 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
BETWEEN 1 AND 2" WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE NEXT WEEK AFTER A ROUND OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK.
- STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
FAIRLY TRANQUIL PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, ALTHOUGH
A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS. MODELS SHOWING WEAK UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING WITH
THE MEAN FLOW TO TRIGGER THE ELEVATED SHOWERS. FOR LATER TONIGHT,
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE MET/LAV GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO
THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHWEST
THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE BY MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 60S AWAY FROM THE BAY AND LAKE MICHIGAN.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, THEN COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE SET AT
90-100% MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. THERE IS A 60-70%
CHANCE OF 1" OR MORE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29. THERE IS A
20-30% CHANCE OF 2" OR MORE ACROSS CENTRAL WI. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL WI
IN A MARGINAL RISK MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH COOL NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON.
WITH THE DRYING CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COULD DEVELOP
LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI TAF SITES WITH HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT
TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT THE EAST-CENTRAL WI
TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z BEFORE LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOP/MOVE INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. A PERIOD OF
FOG WITH POSSIBLE LIFR VSBYS LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH THE LOW
CLOUDS AT THE EAST-CENTRAL WI TAF SITES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE. HOWEVER, THE MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
STICK AROUND FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT WITH
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON SEVERAL RIVERS, NAMELY THE WOLF AND
MENOMINEE. MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ON THE FOX RIVER AT
OSHKOSH. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES IS EXPECTED
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE OF 1" OF
RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29. THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF
2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL WI.
PER RFC FORECASTS AND HEFS GUIDANCE, IT APPEARS THAT THE
MENOMINEE RIVER COULD RETURN TO MODERATE FLOODING AT MC ALLISTER
WHERE THE PROBABLY OF THIS OCCURRING AT 10%. CONTINUING SNOW MELT
FROM THE UPPER PENINSULA WOULD LEND SOME CONFIDENCE FOR AT LEAST
A RETURN TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.
DUE TO LESS RAINFALL, THE WOLF RIVER IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO GET
BACK TO MAJOR OR EVEN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE, EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL. LEVELS ON THE LAKE WINNEBAGO SYSTEM CONTINUE TO RISE
DUE TO INFLOW FROM THE WOLF AND FOX RIVERS, WITH MINOR FLOODING
ALREADY OCCURRING FROM LAKE POYGAN TO WINNEBAGO AND MINOR FLOODING
FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THOSE LIVING NEAR RIVERS
OR STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....ECKBERG
AVIATION.......KRUK
HYDROLOGY......ECKBERG
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