350
FXUS63 KGRB 290342
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1042 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCE (30-50%) OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY UNDER 0.25 INCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MINOR FLOODING PERSISTS ON THE WOLF RIVER AND ON THE WINNEBAGO
SYSTEM. LIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FLOODING CONCERNS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. ONE WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND BRING A
SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES, WITH A STRONGER WAVE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG
WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING
A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY, WE MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD A SMALL
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, AS YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, SO THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT BE CONCERN.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND, SO WE MAY GET A BREAK IN THE DAILY SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN.
SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A FAIRLY POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THOUGH TIMING OF
THE FRONT IS IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT.
GIVEN A PERSISTENT FLOW OF CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION, IT IS NOT
A SURPRISE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES (TO NEAR NORMAL) SHOULD
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF.
AVIATION
FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR CIGS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN FILLING IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR OVC
CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS
A CHANCE (30%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
WI EARLY WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS OF MFVR CIGS/VSBYS
AT ATW, GRB, AND MTW AS ANY SHOWERS PASS OVER A TERMINAL. ANOTHER
SHORT-WAVE WILL THEN BRING A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT SWINGS SOUTH OVER MN. AGAIN
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF
ANY IFR CONDITIONS IS LOW (LESS THAN 10%). FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY (100-300 J/KG) ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WI
WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES SO DID INCLUDE
PROB30 GROUPS AT ATW, GRB, AND MTW FOR -TSRA. SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO
AN END WEDNESDAY EVENING (AFTER ABOUT 3Z) WITH A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
MINOR FLOODING PERSISTS ON THE WOLF RIVER AT SHIOCTON AND NEW
LONDON, IN ADDITION TO THE WINNEBAGO SYSTEM. HOWEVER, WITH LESS
RAINFALL THAN EXPECTED WITH THE PAST TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND ONLY
LIGHT RAIN ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN INTO THE WEEKEND.
THOSE LIVING NEAR RIVERS OR STREAMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN GREEN BAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......GK
HYDROLOGY......KIECKBUSCH
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