494
FXUS63 KGRB 021753
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1253 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN (30-40% CHANCE).
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGH CHANCE (FOR RAIN ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON (40-50% CHANCE).
- OTHER THAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
WILL RETURN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE 2
SEPARATE PV ANOMALIES THAT TRACK THROUGH SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
THE MICHIGAN UP, WITH NORTHEAST WISCONSIN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES. IN ADDITION, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA. THEREFORE, WILL TAPER DOWN POPS INTO
THE 30-40% RANGE AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL NOT ACTUALLY
BE IN OUR AREA, RATHER IT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTHWEST.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY MIDDAY SUNDAY,
LEADING TO DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
THE 60S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN WILL BE
DOMINATED BY AN ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND THE HUDSON BAY. A MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS WISCONSIN ON
MONDAY. WHILE OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WEAK
INSTABILITY UP TO 100 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AS THERE IS A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE OF
1/4" OF RAIN. BUT WITH THUNDERSTORMS, HIGH END AMOUNTS (95
PERCENTILE) UP TO 1/2" ARE POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. UNDER THE COLD POOL OF THE UPPER TROUGH, SCATTERED
DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS
LOW. FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL WILL PEAK AGAIN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN FAIR
WEATHER CU WITH BASES AT 6-7K FT. MID CLOUDS THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWER CHANCES. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
LOOKS A BIT LOWER THIS RUN; THEREFORE, WILL HANDLE THE SHOWERS
WITH PROB30 GROUPS THIS RUN. NO DETERIORATION OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
IS EXPECTED FOR CIGS OR VSBYS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE WEST TODAY, BACKING
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THEN VEERING TO THE
WEST SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 15-20 KNOTS
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION.....KURIMSKI
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI
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