765
FXUS63 KGRB 222346
AFDGRB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
646 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- ALTHOUGH THERE ARE INTERMITTENT LOW (20 TO 50%) RAIN CHANCES
INTO NEXT WEEK, THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED HEAVIER RAIN OR SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
TEMPERATURES: WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK
STEADY WARMING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA AND HEIGHTS BUILD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. A BLOCKING PATTERN WITH AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US BOOKENDED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE
WESTERN/EASTERN US SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGHS LIKELY WILL EXCEED 80 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA, WITH SOME COOLING ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN. SOMEWHAT GREATER
SPREAD IN TEMPS SEEN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, LIKELY OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT AND AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING.
PRECIPITATION: LOW SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AT TIMES
OVERALL, THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL OR SEVERE
STORMS IS QUITE LOW OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
SATURDAY WHILE A BROAD TROUGH PIVOTS EAST FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A SMALL (20-40%) SHOWER CHANCE EXISTS OVER FAR EASTERN
WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THE WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING WHILE
THE HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES (30-50%) LOOK TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, WITH
VERY WEAK MUCAPE, THUNDER CHANCES ARE QUITE LOW.
LOW (20-30%) SHOWER/STORM CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEEK AS
DIURNAL INSTABILITY INTERACTS WITH LOW-AMPLITUDE LOW
PREDICTABILITY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. HOWEVER, MOST HOURS WILL BE
DRY.
LITTLE SIGNAL FOR RAIN IS EVIDENT LATE NEXT WEEK AS CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A DRIER AIRMASS.
AVIATION
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
/18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT, BUT MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKESHORE/FOX VALLEY
AREAS LATE TONIGHT, THEN SPREAD WESTWARD INTO NC/C WI BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. MVFR CEILING SHOULD PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVEMENT AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL IMPACT NC/C WI (AND THE WESTERN
TAF SITES) THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/SAT, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. FARTHER EAST, RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER, AND
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRB/ATW/MTW TAFS AT THIS TIME.
GUSTY NE-E WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT
TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS CONTINUING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR THE NEARSHORE LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS WITH A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT FOR LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES. ALTHOUGH WINDS AND WAVES
ARE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL, PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN
WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET AND A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR WIZ022-
040-050.
DISCUSSION.....JM
AVIATION.......KIECKBUSCH
MARINE.........JM
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